The Great Redoubt

U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes News Release

2011-11-10T09:02:00.001-05:00

Bureau of Labor Statistics The latest U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes news release has been posted on the BLS website at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ximpim.pdf and also archived at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ximpim_11102011.pdf. Highlights are below.

International Trade

2011-11-10T09:01:00.003-05:00

International Trade is one of those justifiably influential reports. Even if you've never paid attention to it before, you've heard of it. Of course, if you don't follow the economic indicators, you've probably heard of it under a different name: the US trade deficit. And that's exactly what International Trade is: the difference in total dollars between what we import and what we

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-11-10T09:01:00.001-05:00

Well, it's Thursday. And if it's Thursday, that means it's time for the First Time Jobless Claims report! To start with, let's recap last week. The advance figure for initial claims for the week ending 10/29 came in at 397,000 (which beat the expected 400,000 new claims), and the advance figure for actual initial claims came in at 366,923. Meanwhile, the total number of people claiming

Employment Situation

2011-11-04T09:30:00.001-04:00

There's really only one market indicator coming out today, but it's a big one: the Employment Situation report. this report is the official word on how many nonfarm jobs (and how many nonfarm private sector jobs) were created for the previous month, what the unemployment rate is, how much average hourly earnings changed, and what the average work week is. A good Employment Situation report

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-11-03T09:02:00.001-04:00

First up for today's economic data is First Time Jobless Claims. This particular report is a look at, well, exactly what it sounds like. How many people filed for unemployment insurance for the first time in a given week. The figures come in two flavors: seasonally adjusted (which attempts to make allowances for seasonality[1]) and unadjusted (the actual raw number of claimants). Also,

ADP Employment Report

2011-11-02T09:52:00.001-04:00

The ADP Employment Report is the second wave of jobs week, and is rather less depressing to look at than the Challenger Job Cuts Report. Why? Well, this report looks at the total number of new jobs that were created in the private sector. ADP, or Automatic Data Processing, is "one of the world's largest providers of business outsourcing solutions" (to quote their website). In essence,if

Employment Situation News Release

2011-09-02T08:54:00.000-04:00

I know I've been a bit of a slacker on these updates this week, and I'll get back to them on Tuesday. But have a look at this. We added 0 jobs in August. Expect market panic, going into Labor Day. Bureau of Labor Statistics The latest Employment Situation news release has been posted on the BLS

Q2 2011 Gross Domestic Product, First Revision

2011-08-26T08:50:00.001-04:00

This is it. The ur-metric. The Platonic form of economic figures. Everything else we look at is just an aspect, a shadow, of the Gross Domestic Product. Everything else measures portions of the economy, but the Gross Domestic Product is the economy. Of course, what we have today isn't all that impressive. Last month, we got an initial release of data, subject to revision twice. That

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-08-25T09:02:00.001-04:00

Oh my gosh! Did he finally write a market news post? Yes he did! Wow! Self-sarcasm aside, it's time for the oft-depressing First Time Jobless Claims report. If you recall from last week, we had a week of bad news. The 8/6 initial jobless claims were adjusted downwards to 399,000, but the 8/13 advance figure for seasonally adjusted claims came in at an expectations-missing 408,000.

FW: First Time Jobless Claims

2011-08-18T09:26:00.005-04:00

And, of course, we have the first time jobless claims. If you're new to this, this report is a measure of how many people filed for unemployment insurance in the previous week. Last week, the figures for the week ending 8/6 were better than expected. New claims for 7/30 were revised upwards to 402,000 - technically putting us at 20 upwards revisions in 24 weeks, although it did only

Consumer Price Index News Release

2011-08-18T09:26:00.003-04:00

Bureau of Labor Statistics The latest Consumer Price Index news release has been posted on the BLS website at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf and also archived at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08182011.pdf. Highlights are below.

Consumer Price Index

2011-08-18T09:26:00.001-04:00

Yesterday, we got to see what inflation is doing to consumers. Now, it's our turn. It's time for the CPI, and that means inflation. Well, technically it could also mean deflation. But nobody really expects that, because the Fed distinctly dreads and detests deflation[1]. And also because, low interest rates notwithstanding, there is a huge sum of money sitting out there waiting to

World News!

2011-08-17T09:51:00.001-04:00

China With US Vice-President Joe Biden getting ready to arrive in China, our single largest sovereign debt holder has spelled out exactly what they want to hear from its debtor: "As the United States' largest foreign creditor, China has much at stake over US economic policy changes and a stable US dollar[1]. Therefore, Washington's handling of all the related issues in a

Producer Price Index News Release

2011-08-17T08:47:00.001-04:00

Bureau of Labor Statistics The latest Producer Price Index news release has been posted on the BLS website at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf and also archived at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_08172011.pdf. Highlights are below.

Producer Price Index

2011-08-17T08:46:00.001-04:00

We've only got one major piece of market data today, but it's a big one: the Producer Price Index (or, more precisely, indexes). Given the title of this news item, this should be no surprise. The Producer Price Index is actually a set of indexes that measure the change in costs of supplies used by manufacturers at all stages of the manufacturing and production process - raw materials,

World News!

2011-08-15T09:37:00.001-04:00

Libya Libyan rebels have seized control of the coastal town of Zawiyah,, 30 miles west of Tripoli, giving them the ability to halt food and fuel shipments from Tunisia to the capitol. Pakistan In "just when you though relations couldn't get any worse" news, the Financial Times has reported that Pakistan gave China access to the crashed US stealth helicopter that was

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-08-11T08:53:00.003-04:00

And of course, we have the first time jobless claims. What can I say about this that hasn't already been said? Last week, the analysts were expecting a seasonally-adjusted 403,000 new claims for the week ending 7/30. We came in at 401,000, which beat expectations right until the almost inevitable moment today in which that figure is revised upwards[1]. Unadjusted initial claims for the

International Trade

2011-08-11T08:53:00.001-04:00

The International Trade Balance - aka the US International Trade in Goods and Services report - is a look at the nation's trade deficit. Or, theoretically, our trade surplus. It's a pretty hefty report as economic indicators go, because it's added to the sum of consumer spending plus private investing plus government spending to determine what our GDP is. And since we've been running a

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-08-04T09:10:00.001-04:00

It's that time of the week already. So let's brace ourselves for the last bit of employment data we get before tomorrow's Employment Situation report - the oft-revised First Time Jobless Claims! Last week, the seasonally adjusted initial claims figures for the week ending 7/23 came in at 398,000. Which nicely beat expectations (except for that pesky 87.81% chance that it will be revised

This Is The First Day Of The Rest of Your Fiscal Life, And Here Is The World News!

2011-08-03T11:01:00.000-04:00

Australia Bomb-disposal teams have surrounded a house in Sydney. Reports are that an 18-year-old woman is inside, with a bomb and a ransom note strapped to her. Police have not confirmed the details, but have said they are treating the device as live until it can be proven otherwise. Japan Parliament has approved a plan to help TEPCO compensate individuals affected by

ADP Employment Report

2011-08-03T09:14:00.001-04:00

Here's a report I've neglected for a few months. A pity, that, since it makes a nice counterpoint to the Challenger Job Cuts Report. ADP is, of course, Automatic Data Processing, self described as "one of the world's largest providers of business outsourcing solutions". Specifically, they do HR and payroll, putting them in an admirable position to get a sense of how many people are

Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cuts Report

2011-08-03T08:48:00.001-04:00

Yep, it's that time of the month again. The time in which we begin the run-up to Friday's Employment Situation report. And that means we kick off the festivities with data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas - the outplacement consulting firm - about how many layoffs were announced in a given month. Not how many happened in a given month (that's a different report), but how many companies

World News Debt Ceiling Update!

2011-08-02T15:45:00.001-04:00

United States The Senate has passed the compromise deficit-cutting/debt ceiling-raising bill by a vote of 74 to 28. President Obama has signed the compromise deficit-cutting/debt ceiling-raising bill into law, but reiterated his belief that it will be impossible for the US to "close the deficit with just spending cuts." Fitch Ratings has announced that they will

Radiation! Parasites! Dirty Political Tricks! Racism! It's World News!

2011-08-02T09:35:00.001-04:00

Iraq In "Really? Why?" news, Admiral Mike Mullin said that in order for US troops to remain in Iraq as advisors beyond the year-end deadline for withdraw, they would require legal immunity. Iraqi officials have, so far, rejected the idea. Japan TEPCO has reported that, as of yesterday, Geiger counters have registered their highest possible reading at the crippled

Personal Income and Outlays

2011-08-02T08:49:00.001-04:00

Join me now as I attempt to pull my attention away from the nailbiting race to default (15 hours, 30 minutes and counting) and look at something else that affects the economy. In this case, Personal Income and Outlays. This is a report that tells you exactly what it is - an examination of the change in individual income and spending, as well as an examination of one of many measures of

World News! The "We May Not Hit The Debt Ceiling" Edition!

2011-08-01T10:28:00.001-04:00

China Beijing has pledged to keep to a "prudent" monetary policy for the rest of the year. The People's Bank of China indicates that domestic inflation is still too high and that this is their primary focus. Beijing is also blaming Muslim separatists trained in Pakistan for a series of attacks over the weekend in Kashgar that left 18 people dead. Japan In "they just

World News!

2011-07-29T12:26:00.001-04:00

Australia In "I thought this only happened in the cartoons" news, a RAAF airman was seriously burnt when a portable toilet exploded after he lit a cigarette while using the facilities. The airman is in serious but stable condition. China The Chinese government has ordered any and all companies that have issued bonds to submit any asset restructuring plans to bond

Q2 2011 Gross Domestic Product, Advance Figures

2011-07-29T09:07:00.001-04:00

Brace yourselves. This is going to be huge. No matter what the results are. This, of course, is Gross Domestic Product ("GDP" to his buddies) - the 800 pound gorilla of economic measures. It is the economy, being the sum total of private domestic consumption, plus gross private domestic investment, plus government spending, plus the current trade balance. Every other economic measure

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-07-28T08:53:00.001-04:00

It's Thursday, and Thursday means unemployment. The week ending 7/16, assuming the figures don't get adjusted upwards again for the 18th time in 22 weeks, had results that were disappointing but not terrible. The analysts were looking for a seasonally adjusted 415,000 new jobless claims, and we got 418,000 - pretty close, al things considered. The unadjusted number of initial claims came

New Home Sales

2011-07-26T10:37:00.003-04:00

New Home Sales, an annualized look at overall sales of newly constructed homes, is another one of those powerful market-moving forces. The Street tends to love (and fear) this report because of the potential trickle-down effect it has on the economy. New home purchases mean new mortgages (so money is being put to work). They also mean new durable and non-durable goods purchases, insurance

Consumer Confidence

2011-07-26T10:37:00.001-04:00

Consumer Confidence is The Conference Board's survey of three thousand households, looking for a consensus opinion about current and future economic conditions. It's a pretty big market mover, because consumer transactions represent about one-third of GDP. If consumers aren't confident, GDP is likely to decline. Last month the consumer confidence index hit 58.5, and the Econoday-surveyed

World News: Seven Days And Counting!

2011-07-26T09:35:00.001-04:00

Greece The Greek government is looking to institute a voluntary program, granting banks the option to swap existing Greek debt for new bonds with up to 30 years of maturity. Greece and the International Institute of Finance are assuming that there will be a 90% participation rate in the offer, which is estimated to cause a 21% loss to investors. JPMorgan, among other

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-07-21T08:59:00.001-04:00

It's been a few days since I got one of these out, but I couldn't miss today. It's Thursday! And that means unemployment! Last week, we nailed expectations dead on. The analysts expected an adjusted 405,000 new claims for the week ending 7/9, and that's exactly what they got. The unadjusted number of initial claims came in at 470,671 (up 53,873), and the total number of people

World News!

2011-07-15T11:32:00.001-04:00

Afghanistan Ten thousand US troops have left Afghanistan, as the first wave of a drawdown that aims to bring about a third of the 100,000 soldiers stationed there home. In the realm of "genuinely good news," a population of snow leopards has been found in northeastern Afghanistan's Wakhan Corridor. Only between 4500 and 7500 of the cats are known to survive in the wild

CPI

2011-07-15T09:07:00.001-04:00

Who wants some inflation? Realistically, nobody. But everybody talks about it, and everybody worries about it, and everybody is waiting for the floodgates to open for the massive quantities of liquid cash injected by the Federal Reserve to begin driving inflation up and up. The Street worries about inflation because, if it begins to go up, the Fed will have to start tightening and that

Producer Price Index News Release

2011-07-14T10:02:00.003-04:00

---------------------------------------------------------------------------The latest Producer Price Index news release (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf) was issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Highlights are below.---------------------------------------------------------------------------The Producer Price Index for finished goods decreased 0.4 percent in June, seasonally

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-07-14T10:02:00.001-04:00

And finally, in our bumper crop of market data, we have First Time Jobless Claims. Last week, I had a little fun with the analyst predictions that there would be 420,000 new claims for the week ending 7/2, pointing out that this same number had been predicted for several weeks in a row. When we got the actual results, it turned out that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial

Retail Sales

2011-07-14T10:01:00.003-04:00

Next in our fine harvest of market data comes Retail Sales - the US Census Bureau report about the changes in total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods[1]. This is another of those reports that gets the analysts all excited. The Street likes increasing sales, because that means increasing corporate revenue, which (hopefully) means increasing corporate profits. The

Producer Price Index

2011-07-14T10:01:00.001-04:00

We have a bumper crop of market data today!. Starting us off (because it's the one I clicked on first - all three reports actually come out at the same time), we have the Producer Price Index. This is, of course, a measure of inflation as it impacts producers and manufacturers at all stages of the process - raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished products. Increases in PPI don't

World News!

2011-07-13T14:28:00.001-04:00

Canada Research mathematicians at the University of Alberta have proposed that the number 16,777,216 be officially named a "fillion". China Chinese Q2 GDP increased at an annual rate of 9.5% (2.2% from Q1 to Q2), good news for those concerned about inflation but still the slowest rate of growth since Q3 2009. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will be

U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes News Release

2011-07-13T09:22:00.001-04:00

---------------------------------------------------------------------------The latest U. S. Import and Export Price Indexes news release (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ximpim.pdf) was issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Highlights are below.---------------------------------------------------------------------------U.S. import prices fell 0.5 percent in June, the first monthly

FW: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Outlines Bank Supervision Approach

2011-07-13T08:28:00.001-04:00

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Outlines Bank Supervision Approach CFPB Will Begin Its Examination Program for Large Banks on July 21 WASHINGTON – The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) today outlined the agency's approach to supervising large depository institutions to ensure compliance with federal consumer financial protection laws – a

World News!

2011-07-12T16:41:00.000-04:00

Australia In an effort to cut carbon emissions, the Australian government plans to levy a AU$25 per metric ton tax on carbon dioxide emissions on the country's 500 worst polluters. The plan is fairly unpopular, as it is expected to drive up household energy costs. Canada Canada has withdrawn from the UN Conference on Disarmament, a permanent 65-member-nation conference on

US International Trade In Goods And Services, May 2011

2011-07-12T10:24:00.001-04:00

"International Trade" is, in this context, the technical term for the US trade deficit[1]. Analysts really like to look at this figure, because trade deficits are directly subtracted from GDP. If the deficit shrinks, there is joy all around. If it expands, despair. April's results were surprisingly good, showing the trade deficit narrowing to $43.7 billion - beating expectations $5.3

World News!

2011-07-08T09:59:00.001-04:00

Egypt In "is it still February" news, thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square to demand that the nation's military dictatorship implement promised political changes more rapidly than has been done so far. Libya The US House of Representatives has voted to deny funding for any direct help to the Libyan rebels - including weapons, training, and advice. A

Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation News Release

2011-07-08T09:11:00.001-04:00

---------------------------------------------------------------------------The latest Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jec.pdf) was issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The text is below.---------------------------------------------------------------------------Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press

Employment Situation

2011-07-08T09:08:00.001-04:00

Brace yourself. No matter how this comes out, this will be big today. This, of course, is the Employment Situation report. It's that time of the month again, the time when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the official figures on how many jobs were created in the previous month, what the official unemployment rate is, and so on and so forth. This is a huge and closely followed

World News!

2011-07-07T17:02:00.001-04:00

China Thanks to worries about corruption, China is giving serious consideration to a significant reduction in spending on their "seven new strategic industries plan". European Union The European Union raised interest rates for the second time this year, bringing their benchmark interest rate to 1.5%, in an effort to slow above-target inflation. The tightening was not

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-07-07T11:00:00.001-04:00

My goodness. Is it Thursday already? Amazing how time flies on a short week. Anyway, if it's Thursday, it's time for First Time Jobless Claims. If you recall from last week we missed expectations by 8000, with initial claims for the week ending 6/25 coming in at 428,000. Actual initial claims came in at 403,284 (up 8,998), and the total number of people claiming benefits in all

FAO Food Price Index

2011-07-07T09:40:00.001-04:00

The FAO is the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Quoting from their web site, they act "as a neutral forum where all nations meet as equals to negotiate agreements and debate policy. FAO is also a source of knowledge and information. We help developing countries and countries in transition modernize and improve agriculture, forestry and fisheries practices and

World News!

2011-07-06T10:27:00.001-04:00

Canada Although the official end does not come until tomorrow, Canada's 2800 troops in Afghanistan have begun to return hone. China China's central bank raised interest rates another 25 basis points today, bringing the target one-year lending rate to 6.56% and the benchmark one-year deposit rate to 3.5%. The World Trade Organization has ruled that Chinese export

Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cuts Report

2011-07-06T09:13:00.001-04:00

Challenger, Gray & Christmas - and stop me if you've heard this before - is an "outplacement consulting firm". This means that, when a company is getting ready to "outplace" employees, they get hired to try to soften the blow and make the company look better by prepping them for their newly unemployed status, and by coaching them on how to look for work. As a result they get a lot of

World News! Now With Exploding Watermelon!

2011-06-30T16:42:00.001-04:00

China You think the occasional bout of E.coli in the US is bad? Try pigs laced with toxic levels of steroids, phospherescent blue pork, and watermelon that explodes like landmines. Egypt In a flashback to the beginning of the year, protesters demanding political reform clashed with police in Cairo. 40 people have been arrested, and over 1000 injured. France In a move

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-06-30T11:27:00.001-04:00

As you all may remember, I was on vacation last week. Amongst other things, this means that I did not pay attention to any form of economic data beyond the balance of my checking account. I have no idea what the figures looked like last week. Econoday is reporting that the seasonally adjusted level for initial claims came in at 429,000, missing expectations by 9000. They also indicate

World News! Now Back From Vacation!

2011-06-28T11:58:00.001-04:00

Australia Philip Morris is has threatened to sue the government of Australia over a plan to ban company logos and branding on tobacco packaging. The company states that the law violates an investment treaty between Australia and Hong Kong. Bolivia In the wake of violent protests sparked by food shortages, President Evo Morales has signed a new law to create state-owned

Market Moving Data, 6/20 - 6/24

2011-06-17T16:55:00.001-04:00

I'm going to be on vacation all next week, so I obviously won't be providing any commentary on the market during that time. Here's what you'll be looking at, while I'm watching TV and trying to keep my son from eating the dog's food. Monday, June 20th There are no real reports due out this day. You've got the 4-Week, 3-Month and 6-Month T-Bill auctions, and that's about it.

Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) News Release

2011-06-17T10:40:00.001-04:00

---------------------------------------------------------------------------The latest Regional and State Employment and Unemployment news release (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/laus.pdf) was issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Highlights are below.---------------------------------------------------------------------------In May, 24 states reported over-the-month unemployment

World News!

2011-06-16T16:08:00.001-04:00

Belarus Protesting the economic crisis in the eastern European nation, around 1000 people gathered outside the main administration building in defiance of - stop me if this sounds familiar - orders issued under a State of Emergency banning any sort of protests. President Alexander Lukashenko's response was to - and stop me if this part sounds familiar as well - suppress any

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-06-16T09:51:00.001-04:00

Next on the agenda for market-moving news, we have unemployment insurance claims. Last week, we had "mixed but bad" results. The analysts had been calling for 418,000 new claims for 6/4, and we got 427,000 instead. On the other hand, looking at the unadjusted numbers for the week, we had 364,507 claims (a decrease of 12,914). The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs

Housing Starts

2011-06-16T09:10:00.001-04:00

First up on the market-movement agenda for today is Housing Starts, a monthly examination of how many new residential buildings have started construction. The figures are given as an annualized rate, meaning we are looking at how many houses would be built in the space of one year if the current rate of construction were carried forward. No, I don't know why it's calculated this way,

World News, In Which We Learn How Much Cash Fits In An Airplane

2011-06-15T11:36:00.000-04:00

Canada Richard Gadden, director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, has warned that state-sponsored espionage against the country has reached "levels equal to, or greater than those witnessed during the Cold War." Chile In "Gotterdammerung news", the ash cloud from the Puyehue-Cordon-Caulle volcano range has forced the cancellation of flights into and out of

Industrial Production

2011-06-15T09:33:00.001-04:00

This particular report is another one of those reports that is pretty much exactly what it sounds like. It's an overview of the monthly change in factory production rates, and then a look at what percentage of our total (theoretical) production capacity the nation is using. The report subdivides into industries and types of products as well, but most analysts like to look at the overall

Consumer Price Index News Release

2011-06-15T09:24:00.001-04:00

---------------------------------------------------------------------------The latest Consumer Price Index news release (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf) was issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Highlights are below.---------------------------------------------------------------------------On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.2 percent in May after rising

Consumer Price Index

2011-06-15T08:49:00.001-04:00

Yesterday, we had a look at production cost inflation (through the PPI). Today, it's time to consult the CPI-U and see what, if anything, has passed on to consumers. Last month, April's CPI-U was a mixed bag of results. It increased 0.4%, which was right in line with expectations, while core CPI-U increased 0.2% (missing expectations). We also saw the energy index rise 2.2% and the food

Retail Sales

2011-06-14T11:05:00.001-04:00

Retail Sales! This is the report in which the US Census Bureau tells us about the changes in total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods - that is, goods you can touch, pick up, smell, eat, and so forth. As opposed to intangible goods, which are actually services. The Street likes this report because they like sales. They like corporate revenues, they like seeing the

Producer Price Index

2011-06-14T10:12:00.001-04:00

The Producer Price Index - PPI to its friends - is a Bureau of Labor Statistics index that tracks the change in manufacturing costs in the United States. If PPI goes up, that implies rising inflation (although it doesn't always prove it, since bad economic conditions can make it difficult to pass production costs on to consumers[1]). Analysts like neutral numbers here; mild increases are

Producer Price Index News Release

2011-06-14T10:11:00.002-04:00

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

2011-06-14T10:11:00.001-04:00

The NFIB is the National Federation of Independent Business, an organization that describes itself as "the leading small business association representing small and independent businesses. A nonprofit, nonpartisan organization founded in 1943, NFIB represents the consensus views of its members in Washington and all 50 state capitals." One thing that the NFIB does is survey its members on

What's Happening This Week?

2011-06-13T14:22:00.001-04:00

Just a quick look into the future, so you know what to expect in the way of market-moving economic measures. Tuesday brings us the NIFIB Small Business Optimism Index (aka "what sort of mood are half the employers in the United States in"), the Producer Price Index (aka "What does it cost to make things") and Retail Sales (a quick look at the change in total receipts in stores that sell

US International Trade In Goods And Services, April 2011

2011-06-09T11:54:00.001-04:00

International Trade is another term for trade surplus (or deficit). This is one of those important economic measures, because it directly impacts GDP - by definition, a trade surplus is directly added to GDP and a trade deficit is directly subtracted from GDP. So the market keeps an eye on this figure and reacts accordingly. Last month, March was reported to have had an

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-06-09T10:47:00.001-04:00

It's Thursday! And Thursday means unemployment! Well, specifically, it means the Department of Labor's statistics on initial (and, to a lesser extent, continuing) unemployment claims. Last week, the week ending 5/28, the news was sad and expectation-missing, but not outright terrible[1]. The advance figures for initial jobless claims came in at 422,000, with the unadjusted figure

World News, In Which The Possibility Of A US Debt Default Is Explored, And In Which US Debt Holders Express Certain Concerns

2011-06-08T13:02:00.001-04:00

Africa The Famine Early Warning Systems Network, an arm of the nonprofit US Agency for International Development, issued a report today warning that after two consecutive seasons of significantly below-average rainfall, nations on the eastern Horn of Africa (primarily Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia) face what is described as a "food security emergency", with a regional

World News!

2011-06-07T13:08:00.001-04:00

China In commentary that was quickly removed from the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Guan Tao advised that China should guard against "economic and political risks in excessive holdings of US dollar assets". "The United States has taken an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate economic growth, and the United States may find it hard to resist

FAO Food Price Index

2011-06-07T10:40:00.001-04:00

The FAO is the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The FAO Food Price Index is, according to their web site, "a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basked of food commodities." Nice and straight forward, right? The Food Price Index obviously tracks overall changes in the other five indices, which are: The Meat Price Index, which tracks

World News Is All Up In UR Internetz!

2011-06-06T11:42:00.001-04:00

Chile One-upping Iceland, the Puyehue-Cordon-Caulle volcano range - running about 500 miles south of Santiago - erupted over the weekend. Colombia A US judge has allowed lawsuits brought against Chiquita by at least 4000 Colombians to go forward. The plaintiffs allege that they or their relatives were tortured and/or killed by paramilitary organizations paid by Chiquita

What's Good For The Goose...

2011-06-05T15:35:00.002-04:00

In what sounds like something straight out of the Onion, a couple in Florida had a Bank of America office foreclosed on after the bank failed to pay legal fees as ordered by a judge.Really, I don't know if I can add anything to this, except to say that you can read more at the WFMY News page I found this on.

World News!

2011-06-03T12:15:00.001-04:00

Greece Greece has apparently agreed in principle to a new bail-out package. Greece has agreed to another 6.4 billion euros in austerity measures and to (finally) start its 50 billion euro privatization program, and in return they will be granted some debt reduction and loans. The total size is unknown, but it is reported that it should cover Greece's borrowing needs through

Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation News Release

2011-06-03T09:30:00.001-04:00

Employment Situation

2011-06-03T09:28:00.001-04:00

And now, the moment you've all been waiting for with baited breath, the balm bringing sweet surcease of sorrow to soothe the hurts of the market... It's the Employment Situation report! The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly review of how many jobs were created in a month and what the current unemployment rate is. If you recall from last month, the April figures were... mixed.

World News!

2011-06-02T15:18:00.001-04:00

Bahrain Bahrain has lifted its Saudi Arabia-supported (through money and troops) state of emergency, after 11 weeks and 20 deaths. The state of emergency was originally implemented to suppress pro-democracy protesters demanding changes to the way the government works. King Hamad al-Khalifa has promised a national dialogue on reform beginning next month, but has not

World News!

2011-06-01T12:29:00.001-04:00

Australia In "Ministry of Love" news, the state of Victoria is about to approve a new law that will allow police to levy fines of up to Aus$240 on people who use "offensive words or phrases" in public. Europe In "KLEINBOM Portable Explosives" news, small bombs detonated at IKEA stores in Ghent (Belgium), Lille (France) and Eindhoven (the Netherlands). No serious injuries

ADP Employment Report

2011-06-01T09:52:00.000-04:00

Now, a (hopeful) look at the positive side of employment data. ADP is short for Automatic Data Processing, which claims (with some probable justification) to be "one of the world's largest providers of business outsourcing solutions". Since they manage HR, payroll, and tax and benefits administration for multiple companies, they get a good look at hiring and firing trends of their clients

The Challenger Job Cut Report

2011-06-01T09:33:00.001-04:00

It's Employment Situation season, and in celebration of that fact we'll be looking at employment data for the rest of the week. Right out of the gate, we have the Challenger Job Cuts report. This report comes to us courtesy of the outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, which gets hired by companies that are getting ready to lay people off to help the new non-employees

World News!

2011-05-31T16:59:00.001-04:00

Belarus In "well, it guess things could be worse" news, the central bank of Belarus has raised its main interest rate from 14% to 16% in an effort to fight inflation (which is projected to hit 39% by year end), and is also negotiating a $3 billion bailout with Moscow. China In "OMG!!! A/S/L??? how I mine for fish?!?!" news, Chinese prisoners are claiming that Chinese

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

2011-05-31T12:00:00.001-04:00

This is, of course, a report that tracks the average change in house prices in a set of 10-city and 20-city metropolitan areas throughout the United States. It's a lagging indicator, since it looks at data from two months in the past, so it isn't quite as spectacular as the new and existing home sales reports, but it's still watched. In February, the 20-city index dropped 1.1% on a

Consumer Confidence

2011-05-31T11:30:00.001-04:00

Consumer Confidence is upon us! And what is Consumer Confidence you ask?[1] It is a current to foreword-looking survey of what consumer households think about the economy. It samples what people think about current and future economic conditions (employment, income, and so forth), and can be seen as a solid indicator of how likely consumers are to spend money. And since private

World News!

2011-05-27T15:50:00.000-04:00

Greece The IMF has warned that they may refuse to release the June tranche of aid payments to Greece if the country does not start reducing its deficit and otherwise begin acting with more fiscal responsibility. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou met with opposition leaders in an attempt to win support for austerity measures required to prevent a) the IMF from

Pending Home Sales

2011-05-27T11:32:00.001-04:00

Contender number two in our mixed bag of economic data is "pending home sales", an index maintained by the National Association of Realtors that tracks the number of pending home sales[1]. These are defined as a sale in which a contract is actually signed, but the sale has not yet closed. The Street looks at this index, but doesn't weight it as heavily as the new home sales report or the

Personal Income and Outlays. Now With 100% Less ROYAL WEDDING!!!!!!

2011-05-27T09:24:00.001-04:00

We've got a mixed bag of economic data coming out today,starting off with personal income and outlays. Which is, of course, an index that tracks overall changes in personal income. And personal outlays[1]. It also has one particular measure of inflation, although it's not the "official" inflation that the Fed looks at. The market sits up and pays attention to this metric. Why? Well,

World News!

2011-05-26T14:53:00.000-04:00

Egypt The "transitional" Egyptian military government will permanently reopen the Rafah border crossing into Gaza to most Palestinians. This crossing is the only passage into Gaza that bypasses Israel. France The Group of Eight is meeting in Deauville to discuss their responses to the situations in Libya, Egypt and Tunisia, to look into ways to improve global nuclear safety

Q1 2011 GDP, First Revision

2011-05-26T09:44:00.002-04:00

We've got an economic one-two punch coming down the track this morning. We open up with Gross Domestic Product, the "other fist of steel" to first time jobless claim's "one fist of iron"[1]. And Gross Domestic Product is truly a fist of steel for the market. GDP is, of course, the sum total of private domestic consumption plus gross private domestic investment plus government spending

First Time Jobless Claims

2011-05-26T09:44:00.001-04:00

Have you caught your breath from that GDP beating yet? Good, because it's time for the left hook in that one-two punch combo as First Time Jobless Claims come out. Last week was extremely good. The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ending 5/14 came in at 409,000, beating estimates by 16,000. The unadjusted number of initial claims came in at 357,872 (a

World News!

2011-05-25T11:13:00.001-04:00

China In "really?" news, 43% of respondents to a survey conducted by the European Union Chamber of Commerce believe that Beijing discriminates against foreign businesses (an increase from last year's 36%), with 46% believing the trend will continue over the next two years[1]. The Supreme People's Court of China has ordered lower courts to "suspend the death sentence for

Durable Goods Orders

2011-05-25T09:06:00.003-04:00

With the mortgage applications out of the way, it's time to move on to an economic index the market cares about. Durable Goods Orders. According to Barron's Dictionary of Finance and Investment Terms, durable goods are "goods that have a useful life of more than three years. Orders for durable goods, which are tracked by the Commerce Department on a monthly basis, indicate the extent

MBA Purchase Applications

2011-05-25T09:06:00.001-04:00

This is, of course, the Mortgage Bankers' Association indices of mortgage application activity for the previous week. It actually consists of three indices: the Market Composite Index (which tracks overall mortgage application activity), the Purchase Index (which tracks applications for home purchases) and the Refinance Index (which tracks applications for refinancing of existing mortgages

Chrysler Repays Outstanding TARP Loans

2011-05-24T14:53:00.001-04:00

Chrysler Repays Outstanding TARP Loans Early Repayment Comes Six Years before Loans Mature in 2017 115,000 Jobs Added in Auto Industry since June 2009 – Strongest Growth in a Decade WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that Chrysler Group LLC has repaid its outstanding Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) loans. Chrysler's

Remarks by Under Secretary for International Affairs Lael Brainard on Global Agriculture and Food Security

2011-05-24T14:52:00.000-04:00

Remarks by Under Secretary for International Affairs Lael Brainard on Global Agriculture and Food Security Chicago Council of Global Affair's Symposium on Global Agriculture and Food Security As Prepared for Delivery The need for global action to strengthen food security is clear. With food prices again high and increasingly volatile, and in the face of

New Home Sales

2011-05-24T11:12:00.000-04:00

This is a little late, but it's worth it. New Home Sales (technically, New Residential Sales) is exactly what it sounds like on the box - a seasonally adjusted look at the annual rate of sales of newly constructed residential buildings. Keep in mind that this is an annual rate - if we're showing sales at (say) 250,000 that means that in the past rolling year 250,000 new homes have been

World News!

2011-05-24T10:32:00.001-04:00

Australia In "Ray Kurzweil must be proud" news, engineers and scientists at the University of Queensland have designed robots that are capable of inventing their own language and then teaching it to other robots. It's crude right now, but it is one more step towards the godlike AIs predicted by Singularitarians. Greece Moody's Investors Service's chief credit officer for

Yarrr! Student Debt!

2011-05-23T10:11:00.000-04:00