"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

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The information presented in this blog and its individual articles is provided for informational use only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer for a particular security. The contents reflect the views and opinions of the individual writer as of the date the article was written and do not necessarily represent the views of the individual writer on the current date. They also do not in any way, shape, or form represent the views of the Firm Never-To-Be-Named. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and The Great Redoubt and its individual writers disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views should not be relied on as investment advice, and because investment decisions for any security are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any contributor to The Great Redoubt. Neither The Great Redoubt nor any individual author can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Please consult your tax or financial advisor for additional information concerning your specific situation.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Reason And Restraint On The Korean Peninsula

Right off the bat, there's the whole North Korea thing getting worse and worse. At a memorial service for the two South Korean marines killed in the North Korean attack, a thousand South Korean marine veterans burned pictures of Kim Jong-il while chanting: "It's time for action. Time for retaliation. Let's hit the presidential palace in Pyongyang."

So, yeah. Angry calls for retaliation. I can't really say I blame the South Korean people, in the wake of what happened. I mean, if Quebec had just shelled Detroit, I'm sure I'd want to see some retaliation myself. But at least the South Korean government is looking for a diplomatic solution first, right?
"All Marines, including Marines on service and reserve Marines, will avenge the two at any cost, keeping today's anger and hostility in mind," said Lieutenant General Yoo Nak Joon, commander of the South Korean Marine Corps.

"We will put our feelings of rage and animosity in our bones and take our revenge on North Korea."

Ah. But that's the Marine Corps. Perhaps the civilian government...

"There is the possibility that North Korea may do some unexpected action, so please perfectly prepare against it through cooperation with the Korea-U.S. joint force." (South Korean President Lee Myung-bak)
Well, at least there's some good news. North Korea apparently expressed regret for the civilian deaths. In this regard, a spokesman for the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea released a statement on Friday.
The recent military provocation by the puppet group is a product of the deliberate and premeditated plot hatched by it to save its smear confrontational campaign from total bankruptcy, tarnish the daily rising might of the DPRK, scuttle the efforts for improving the north-south relations and tide over the domestic and international isolation and crisis, it points out, and says:

The group perpetrated the recent provocation prompted by a sinister calculation that in case the DPRK did not make any reaction it would take it as "a tacit recognition" of the illegal "northern limit line" and make it a fait accompli and in case the DPRK took a military counter-action, it would use it as a pretext for kicking up anti-DPRK smear campaign.

I give up. Watch for the Asian markets to tank on Monday.

Friday, November 26, 2010

I Genuinely Did Not See That

A friend of mine just pointed out that I had a typo in my URL, of all places. So this is a test post to make sure the correction works.

U.S. International Reserve Position

November 26, 2010
2010-11-26-16-27-38-3591

U.S. International Reserve Position

The Treasury Department today released U.S. reserve assets data for the latest week. As indicated in this table, U.S. reserve assets totaled $134,371 million as of the end of that week, compared to $136,426 million as of the end of the prior week.

I. Official reserve assets and other foreign currency assets (approximate market value, in US millions)

 

 

 

 

November 12, 2010

A. Official reserve assets (in US millions unless otherwise specified) 1

 

 

134,371

(1) Foreign currency reserves (in convertible foreign currencies)

Euro

Yen

Total

(a) Securities

9,685

15,763

25,448

of which: issuer headquartered in reporting country but located abroad

 

 

0

(b) total currency and deposits with:

 

 

 

(i) other national central banks, BIS and IMF

14,405

7,746

22,150

ii) banks headquartered in the reporting country

 

 

0

of which: located abroad

 

 

0

(iii) banks headquartered outside the reporting country

 

 

0

of which: located in the reporting country

 

 

0

 

 

(2) IMF reserve position 2

13,046

 

 

(3) SDRs 2

58,642

 

 

(4) gold (including gold deposits and, if appropriate, gold swapped) 3

11,041

--volume in millions of fine troy ounces

261.499

 

 

(5) other reserve assets (specify)

5,045

--financial derivatives

 

--loans to nonbank nonresidents

 

--other (foreign currency assets invested through reverse repurchase agreements)

5,045

B. Other foreign currency assets (specify)

 

--securities not included in official reserve assets

 

--deposits not included in official reserve assets

 

--loans not included in official reserve assets

 

--financial derivatives not included in official reserve assets

 

--gold not included in official reserve assets

 

--other

 

 

 

 

II. Predetermined short-term net drains on foreign currency assets (nominal value)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maturity breakdown (residual maturity)

 

Total

Up to 1 month

More than 1 and up to 3 months

More than 3 months and up to 1 year

1. Foreign currency loans, securities, and deposits

 

 

 

 

--outflows (-)

Principal

 

 

 

 

 

Interest

 

 

 

 

--inflows (+)

Principal

 

 

 

 

 

Interest

 

 

 

 

2. Aggregate short and long positions in forwards and futures in foreign currencies vis-à-vis the domestic currency (including the forward leg of currency swaps)

 

 

 

 

(a) Short positions ( - ) 4

 -60

 -60

 

 

(b) Long positions (+)

 

 

 

 

3. Other (specify)

 

 

 

 

--outflows related to repos (-)

 

 

 

 

--inflows related to reverse repos (+)

 

 

 

 

--trade credit (-)

 

 

 

 

--trade credit (+)

 

 

 

 

--other accounts payable (-)

 

 

 

 

--other accounts receivable (+)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

III. Contingent short-term net drains on foreign currency assets (nominal value)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maturity breakdown (residual maturity, where applicable)

 

Total

Up to 1 month

More than 1 and up to 3 months

More than 3 months and up to 1 year

1. Contingent liabilities in foreign currency

 

 

 

 

(a) Collateral guarantees on debt falling due within 1 year

 

 

 

 

(b) Other contingent liabilities

 

 

 

 

2. Foreign currency securities issued with embedded options (puttable bonds)

 

 

 

 

3. Undrawn, unconditional credit lines provided by:

 

 

 

 

(a) other national monetary authorities, BIS, IMF, and other international organizations

 

 

 

 

--other national monetary authorities (+)

 

 

 

 

--BIS (+)

 

 

 

 

--IMF (+)

 

 

 

 

(b) with banks and other financial institutions headquartered in the reporting country (+)

 

 

 

 

(c) with banks and other financial institutions headquartered outside the reporting country (+)

 

 

 

 

Undrawn, unconditional credit lines provided to:

 

 

 

 

(a) other national monetary authorities, BIS, IMF, and other international organizations

 

 

 

 

--other national monetary authorities (-)

 

 

 

 

--BIS (-)

 

 

 

 

--IMF (-)

 

 

 

 

(b) banks and other financial institutions headquartered in reporting country (- )

 

 

 

 

(c) banks and other financial institutions headquartered outside the reporting country ( - )

 

 

 

 

4. Aggregate short and long positions of options in foreign currencies vis-à-vis the domestic currency

 

 

 

 

(a) Short positions

 

 

 

 

(i) Bought puts

 

 

 

 

(ii) Written calls

 

 

 

 

(b) Long positions

 

 

 

 

(i) Bought calls

 

 

 

 

(ii) Written puts

 

 

 

 

PRO MEMORIA: In-the-money options 11

 

 

 

 

(1) At current exchange rate

 

 

 

 

(a) Short position

 

 

 

 

(b) Long position

 

 

 

 

(2) + 5 % (depreciation of 5%)

 

 

 

 

(a) Short position

 

 

 

 

(b) Long position

 

 

 

 

(3) - 5 % (appreciation of 5%)

 

 

 

 

(a) Short position

 

 

 

 

(b) Long position

 

 

 

 

(4) +10 % (depreciation of 10%)

 

 

 

 

(a) Short position

 

 

 

 

(b) Long position

 

 

 

 

(5) - 10 % (appreciation of 10%)

 

 

 

 

(a) Short position

 

 

 

 

(b) Long position

 

 

 

 

(6) Other (specify)

 

 

 

 

(a) Short position

 

 

 

 

(b) Long position

 

 

 

 

 

IV. Memo items

 

 

 

(1) To be reported with standard periodicity and timeliness:

 

(a) short-term domestic currency debt indexed to the exchange rate

 

(b) financial instruments denominated in foreign currency and settled by other means (e.g., in domestic currency) 

 

--nondeliverable forwards

 

   --short positions

 

   --long positions

 

--other instruments

 

(c) pledged assets

 

--included in reserve assets

 

--included in other foreign currency assets

 

(d) securities lent and on repo

5,147

--lent or repoed and included in Section I

 

--lent or repoed but not included in Section I

 

--borrowed or acquired and included in Section I

 

--borrowed or acquired but not included in Section I

5,147

(e) financial derivative assets (net, marked to market)

 

--forwards

 

--futures

 

--swaps

 

--options

 

--other

 

(f) derivatives (forward, futures, or options contracts) that have a residual maturity greater than one year, which are subject to margin calls.

 

--aggregate short and long positions in forwards and futures in foreign currencies vis-à-vis the domestic currency (including the forward leg of currency swaps)

 

(a) short positions ( – )

 

(b) long positions (+)

 

--aggregate short and long positions of options in foreign currencies vis-à-vis the domestic currency

 

(a) short positions

 

(i) bought puts

 

(ii) written calls

 

(b) long positions

 

(i) bought calls

 

(ii) written puts

 

(2) To be disclosed less frequently:

 

(a) currency composition of reserves (by groups of currencies)

52,643

--currencies in SDR basket

52,643

2--currencies not in SDR basket

 

--by individual currencies (optional)

 

 

 

Notes:

1/ Includes holdings of the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) and the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account (SOMA), valued at current market exchange rates. Foreign currency holdings listed as securities reflect marked-to-market values, and deposits reflect carrying values. 

2/ The items, "2. IMF Reserve Position" and "3. Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)," are based on data provided by the IMF and are valued in dollar terms at the official SDR/dollar exchange rate for the reporting date. The entries for the latest week reflect any necessary adjustments, including revaluation, by the U.S. Treasury to IMF data for the prior month end. 

3/  Gold stock is valued monthly at $42.2222 per fine troy ounce.

4/ The short positions reflect foreign exchange acquired under reciprocal currency arrangements with certain foreign central banks.  The foreign exchange acquired is not included in Section I, "official reserve assets and other foreign currency assets," of the template for reporting international reserves.  However, it is included in the broader balance of payments presentation as "U.S. Government assets, other than official reserve assets/U.S. foreign currency holdings and U.S. short-term assets."


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