"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

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Thursday, January 20, 2011

First Time Jobless Claims Are Pretty Good, Actually

Once again, it's time for First Time Jobless claims, where analysts are expecting to see the number of new claims drop to a seasonally-adjusted 420,000/  And what does the Department of Labor think of that prediction?  The Department of Labor thinks they're wrong.  Seasonally adjusted, initial jobless claims decreased to 404,000[1] for January 15.
As of January 1, a total of 9,607,423[2] people were claiming UI benefits from one program or another.  That is an increase of 401,237 from December 25, but it is also down 2,234,837 from January 1 2010[3].
Now what's interesting is the fact that only five states saw their first time claims decline by more than 1000, while 33 states saw first time claims increase by more than 1000.
Anyway, I'll be back around 10 AM with Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators.
[1]  Not adjusted, we see 550,594 claims.  Which is down from last week, when 763,098 people filed for unemployment.  So both the trend and the actual number improved this week.
[2]  Not seasonally adjusted.
[3]  Before you celebrate the decline, keep in mind that there is no data in this report on how many out of that 2,234,837 are now employed vs.. how many just used up their benefits.

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