"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

The Required Disclosures

The information presented in this blog and its individual articles is provided for informational use only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer for a particular security. The contents reflect the views and opinions of the individual writer as of the date the article was written and do not necessarily represent the views of the individual writer on the current date. They also do not in any way, shape, or form represent the views of the Firm Never-To-Be-Named. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and The Great Redoubt and its individual writers disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views should not be relied on as investment advice, and because investment decisions for any security are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any contributor to The Great Redoubt. Neither The Great Redoubt nor any individual author can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Please consult your tax or financial advisor for additional information concerning your specific situation.

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Jobless Claims

Continuing the countdown to tomorrow's Employment Situation report, we turn now to First Time Jobless Claims.
 
If you recall last week's data, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ending 3/19 was 382,000 (which beat expectations by 3000), with the unadjusted advance number at 351,204.  The seasonally adjusted state program insured unemployment level was 3,721,000, and the unadjusted level was 4,260,519.  Finally, as of 3/5, the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs was 8,766,062.
 
This week, the Econoday-surveyed analysts are expecting to see the number of first time claims decrease, falling to a level of 380,000.
 
We turn now to the US Department of Labor for the Weekly Claims Report for the week ending 3/26.  First off, they have revised the number of seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ending 3/19 upwards to 394,000, an inauspicious start.  Then, they report the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for 3/26 at 388,000.  The good news is that this is a decline from last week's revised figure;  the bad news is that this is 6000 higher than last week's advance number (which is the number everyone gets excited about), and it has missed expectations by 8000.
 
The unadjusted advance number came in at 354,301.  The seasonally adjusted state program insured unemployment level was revised upwards for the week ending 3/19 to a level of 3,765,000, and the advance number for the week ending 3/26 came in at 3,714,000.  That is still an improvement from last week's initial numbers, but it's not as dramatic as the DoL is claiming based on the revised numbers.
 
As of 3/12, the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs was 8,770,443.

No comments:

Post a Comment