"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

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Thursday, March 17, 2011

The Philadelphia Fed Survey.

This then, is the Philadelphia Fed's survey of business conditions in their district. Even though their district isn't much bigger than the New York Fed's, their report is considered more influential. Maybe, one of these days, I'll find out why.
Anyway, the General Business Conditions Index came in at 35.9 in February, substantially beating expectations. How much? Well, it was the highest level the Philadelphia Fed had recorded since January of 2004. That's how much. Nevertheless (or, possibly, because of this), the Econoday-surveyed analysts are expecting the level to decline to 32.0 for February.
Turning to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's report, those pessimistic analysts were wrong. The General Business Conditions Index increased to a new level of 43.4, the highest reading since January 1984. The New Orders Index increased 17 points, the sixth consecutive monthly increase.

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