"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders are up now, carrying with them the hopes and fears of anyone and everyone who invests in the manufacturing sector.  Or who invests in something that is impacted by GDP.  And everyone invests in something impacted by GDP.
The February figures, if you recall, were extraordinarily disappointing.  New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 0.9% (severely missing the analyst expectation of a 1.5% increase).  But this has not dampened the spirits of the Econoday-surveyed analysts, who are calling for a 1.9% increase in orders for March.  But does the US Census Bureau support this optimism?  Let's see.
The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders March 2011 shows that, if anything, the analysts were not optimistic enough.  New orders for manufactured durable goods were up 2.5%, driven heavily by transportation equipment orders (ex-transportation, new orders were only up 1.3%).

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