"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

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Thursday, April 14, 2011

First Time Jobless Claims

It is indeed that time of the week.  That magical moment in which the US Department of Labor tells us how many people filed for unemployment benefits in the last week.
For the week ending 4/2, we mildly beat expectations.  Analysts were looking for 385,000 new claims, and we came in with an advance figure for the week of 382,000.  The unadjusted number of claims was 350,667 for the week, the initial state program insured unemployment level came in at 3,723,000, and the total number of people claiming UI benefits in all programs came in at 8,524,455.
Looking to the week ending 4/9, the Econoday-surveyed analysts are expecting claims to continue to trend downward, and are looking for a consensus level of 380,000.
And now, we turn to the report!  A report chock-full of soul-crushingly bad news.  First off, the new claims for the week ending 4/2 were revised upwards to 385,000.  That, in and of itself, is not terrible.  But, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ending 4/9 came in at... wait for it... 412,000.
Yes, that's right.  We missed expectations by 22,000.
The unadjusted number of initial claims for the week came in at 443,503, an increase of 92,836.
The state program insured unemployment level for 3/26 was revised upwards to 3,738,000, and is being reported for the week ending 4/2 at 3,680,000.  And the total number of people claiming UI benefits in all programs?  8,517,545.
Not good news, all things considered.

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