"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

The Required Disclosures

The information presented in this blog and its individual articles is provided for informational use only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer for a particular security. The contents reflect the views and opinions of the individual writer as of the date the article was written and do not necessarily represent the views of the individual writer on the current date. They also do not in any way, shape, or form represent the views of the Firm Never-To-Be-Named. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and The Great Redoubt and its individual writers disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views should not be relied on as investment advice, and because investment decisions for any security are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any contributor to The Great Redoubt. Neither The Great Redoubt nor any individual author can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Please consult your tax or financial advisor for additional information concerning your specific situation.

Thursday, May 12, 2011

First Time Jobless Claims

It's Thursday, so once again it is time to return to the well and examine the jobless claims report.
 
As you may recall, last week's results were staggeringly bad.  Initial claims for 4/23 were revised upwards to 431,000, and then the initial claims for 4/30 were reported at 474,000 (missing expectations by 64,000).  The unadjusted claims came in at 412,873 (an increase of 27,251), and the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs was 8,014,919 (a 171,547 decrease from the prior week[1]).
 
This week, the Econoday-surveyed analysts are still optimistic.  They're calling for only 430,000 new claims.
 
Turning to the US Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, we see that those analysts were pretty much on target.  The first time claims for 4/30 were revised downwards to 473,000, and the advance figure for initial claims for the week ending 5/7 comes in at 434,000 - a figure that misses expectations by 4000 but, after last week, I think people will take it.  Unadjusted initial claims for 5/7 come in at 394,583, and the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs comes in at 7,983,672 ( a decline of 31,247 from the previous week[2]).
 
[1]  I did some similar calculations last week, but here goes:  April added 244,000 new jobs, or about 61,000 a week on average for the month.  This means that, at best, only 35.5% of that decline in the number of people claiming benefits can be attributed to people finding employment.  The other 64.5% (best case) just ran out of time and can no longer claim benefits.  So that 171,547 drop really isn't a cause for celebration.
[2]  I'll leave the optimism/pessimism calculations for this week as an exercise for the reader.

No comments:

Post a Comment