"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

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Friday, June 17, 2011

Market Moving Data, 6/20 - 6/24

I'm going to be on vacation all next week, so I obviously won't be providing any commentary on the market during that time.  Here's what you'll be looking at, while I'm watching TV and trying to keep my son from eating the dog's food.
Monday, June 20th
  • There are no real reports due out this day.  You've got the 4-Week, 3-Month and 6-Month T-Bill auctions, and that's about it.
Tuesday, June 21st
  • The FOMC Meeting starts today.
  • Existing Home Sales are due out at 10 AM, Eastern.  The Street gets totally excited about this report, for the same reason they get all excited about New Home Sales and about Housing Starts:  the trickle-down.  Buying a home means mortgages, furniture, paint, appliances, repairs, and lots of other big- and small-ticket durable and non-durable goods.  The information is available from the National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales page.
Wednesday, June 22nd
  • The FOMC Meeting Announcement happens at 12:30 PM Eastern.  There will be remarks, and interesting information, but everyone will be watching with baited breath for the decision about the Fed funds rate.  Econoday doesn't have an "official" prediction, but look for it to stay at 0% - 0.25%.  You'll be able to get the results pretty much anywhere, but I like to use the website of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and specifically I like to look at the Meeting calendars, statements, and minutes page.  Click the Press Conference link for June 21-22, then on the new page click the FOMC Meeting Statement link.
  • Chairman Bernanke will then have a press conference at 2:15 PM Eastern.  The Street will hang on his words, looking for any hints of what the future holds.  You can get the transcript at the same place you would get the FOMC Meeting Statement (above), but you want the Press Conference Transcript instead of the FOMC Meeting Statement.
Thursday, June 23rd
  • Jobless Claims are out at 8:30 AM Eastern.  We have no "official" predictions as of yet, but look for them to be in the range of 400k to 430k, simply because that's where they have been coming in for a while now and I see no reason yet for that number to substantially diminish.  But you can check it yourself at the US Department of Labor's OPA News Releases page.  Look for the link that reads "ETA News Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report [06/23/2011]".
  • New Home Sales come out at 10 AM.  See "Existing Home Sales" above for why the Street gets totally excited about this, because I don't feel like typing it all out again.  You can find the information on the US Census Bureau's New Residential Sales page.  Just look for the current press release.
Friday, June 24th
  • Durable Goods Orders are out at 8:30 AM ET.  This report makes the Street excited because increasing numbers mean increasing factory productivity.  Increasing factory productivity means increased demand for manufactured goods (implying a growing economy and an improving GDP) and (hopefully) increased demand for employees.  Happy happy, joy joy.  And all of this potential, hopeful joy can be found at the US Census Bureau's Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, & Orders page.
  • Last only because of alphabetical ordering comes Gross Domestic Product.  Also at 8:30 AM Eastern.  this month's release will be the final revision for Q1, so it will get attention paid to it.  You'll find the details at the GDP page of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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