"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

The Required Disclosures

The information presented in this blog and its individual articles is provided for informational use only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer for a particular security. The contents reflect the views and opinions of the individual writer as of the date the article was written and do not necessarily represent the views of the individual writer on the current date. They also do not in any way, shape, or form represent the views of the Firm Never-To-Be-Named. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and The Great Redoubt and its individual writers disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views should not be relied on as investment advice, and because investment decisions for any security are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any contributor to The Great Redoubt. Neither The Great Redoubt nor any individual author can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Please consult your tax or financial advisor for additional information concerning your specific situation.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

US International Trade In Goods And Services, April 2011

International Trade is another term for trade surplus (or deficit).  This is one of those important economic measures, because it directly impacts GDP - by definition, a trade surplus is directly added to GDP and a trade deficit is directly subtracted from GDP.  So the market keeps an eye on this figure and reacts accordingly.
Last month, March was reported to have had an expectation-missing trade deficit of $48.2 billion.  And nobody (in the US, anyway) was happy.  This month, the Econoday-surveyed analysts are expecting to see April be even worse, with a trade deficit widening to $49.0 billion.  Are they right?  Let's go to the joint US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Economic Analysis news release to find out.
In short, the analysts are wrong.  The trade deficit narrowed substantially to a level of $43.7 billion.  What's driving that?  Well, we have a $2.0 billion increase in industrial supplies and materials exports, a $1.2 billion increase in capital goods exports, a $2.8 billion decrease in automotive vehicles and parts imports, and a $1.5 billion decrease in industrial supplies and materials imports.  We did see some sectors come in with reduced exports and/or increased imports, of course, but the gains outweighed the losses this month.
So this minor mid-day rally we're seeing in the markets?  Yeah, I'm ascribing it (at least in part) to this better than expected news.

No comments:

Post a Comment