"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

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Wednesday, August 3, 2011

ADP Employment Report

Here's a report I've neglected for a few months.  A pity, that, since it makes a nice counterpoint to the Challenger Job Cuts Report.
ADP is, of course, Automatic Data Processing, self described as "one of the world's largest providers of business outsourcing solutions".  Specifically, they do HR and payroll, putting them in an admirable position to get a sense of how many people are getting hired by employers.  They take that data and process it into a market-impressing calculation of how many new jobs have been created in the US nonfarm private business sector.
For July, the Econoday-surveyed analyts are anticipating a subdued 86,000 private sector job gain.  So, without further ado, let us turn to the July 2011 ADP National Employment Report for the details.  And the basic details are an expectations-beating 114,000 new nonfarm private business sector jobs.  That's 121,000 new jobs in the service-providing sector, 7000 jobs lost in the goods-producing sector, and 1000 jobs lost in the manufacturing sector.
So, yeah.  That's not so good.  Sure, it's a lot of jobs - 55,000 in "professional business services" and 48,000 in "education and healthcare"[1].  But it's declines in the jobs that make things.  That implies serious (and ongoing) manufacturing weakness, which is a potential long-term obstacle for GDP growth.
Most of the job growth came from small and medium businesses (58,000 and 47,000, respectively).  Only 9000 new jobs were created by large companies.
[1]  All right, all right.  I'll concede that more doctors, nurses, and teachers are probably a good thing for the long term economic growth of our nation.

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