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Thursday, November 10, 2011

First Time Jobless Claims

Well, it's Thursday.  And if it's Thursday, that means it's time for the First Time Jobless Claims report!
To start with, let's recap last week.  The advance figure for initial claims for the week ending 10/29 came in at 397,000 (which beat the expected 400,000 new claims), and the advance figure for actual initial claims came in at 366,923.  Meanwhile, the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs (for the week ending 10/15) came in at 6,781,690.
So that was the past.  And while we wait with baited breath for the release of the report, let's see what the Econoday-surveyed analysts are forecasting.  Their consensus estimate is the same as last week:  400,000 new claims, with a range of anywhere from 394,000 to 410,000.
Of course, for the actual results, we turn to the US Department of Labor and their Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.  A review of that report reveals the following details:
  • The seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ending 10/29 have been adjusted upwards to 400,000, meaning that last week no longer beat expectations.
  • The advance seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ending 11/5 are being reported at 390,000, which beats expectations handily until they are (most likely) revised upwards next week.
  • The actual number of initial claims for the week ending 11/5 is being reported at 398,753.
  • The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending 10/22 is reported at 6,835,604.
So, the markets will probably take this as a good sign.  And then they'll wait to see if Greece explodes.

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