"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

The Required Disclosures

The information presented in this blog and its individual articles is provided for informational use only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer for a particular security. The contents reflect the views and opinions of the individual writer as of the date the article was written and do not necessarily represent the views of the individual writer on the current date. They also do not in any way, shape, or form represent the views of the Firm Never-To-Be-Named. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and The Great Redoubt and its individual writers disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views should not be relied on as investment advice, and because investment decisions for any security are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any contributor to The Great Redoubt. Neither The Great Redoubt nor any individual author can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Please consult your tax or financial advisor for additional information concerning your specific situation.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

First Time Jobless Claims

And, of course, if it's Thursday it's all about unemployment[1].
Last week, we had an advance figure of 377,000 seasonally-adjusted first time claims for the week ending June 2, 2012.  That was considered good news, because it was down 12,000 from the previous week.  This week, the Econoday-surveyed analysts are expecting the trend to continue, calling for 375,000 new claims.
For the details on whether or not this optimism is justified, we turn to the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report from the U.S. Department of Labor.  A report that jumps right in and slaps the analysts in the face.  The seasonally adjusted advance figure for initial claims for the week ending June 9 comes in at 386,000 - increasing by 9,000 instead of declining by 2,000.  So yeah, ouch.  Better yet, the figures for June 2 have been revised upwards to 380,000.  So that's no fun, either.
The unadjusted number of actual initial claims under state programs comes in at 373,540, up 49,155 from June 2.  Meanwhile, the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending May 26 fell 145.990 to "only" 5,824,359 people.
So we can distinctly call this "mixed signals" for the marketplace.  CPI is better than expected, jobless claims are worse.
[1]  Except for Thanksgiving.  Then it's all about gorging yourself on turkey, and unemployment happens on Wednesday.

1 comment: