"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

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The information presented in this blog and its individual articles is provided for informational use only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer for a particular security. The contents reflect the views and opinions of the individual writer as of the date the article was written and do not necessarily represent the views of the individual writer on the current date. They also do not in any way, shape, or form represent the views of the Firm Never-To-Be-Named. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and The Great Redoubt and its individual writers disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views should not be relied on as investment advice, and because investment decisions for any security are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any contributor to The Great Redoubt. Neither The Great Redoubt nor any individual author can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Please consult your tax or financial advisor for additional information concerning your specific situation.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Fed Bearish On 2011 & Insider Trading Probes Continue

Let's take a break from the latest round of North Korean Crazy [1] and, instead, look at the US and the sort of domestic crazy we can get up to.
First off, it turns out that the Federal Reserve is in the process of downgrading the future. They had an unscheduled video conference meeting on 10/15 and a regular meeting back 11/2-11/3.



You can read the minutes at http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20101103.htm, but here's the highlights. They've revised their 2011 predictions for GDP downwards from between 3.5% and 4.2% to between 3.0% and 3.6%. They're also expecting unemployment to remain near 9.0% through most of 2011 and still be over 8.0% by the end of 2012. So not much good news there.


If you're following the excitement over the insider trading probes, there are some new developments. Janus Capital Group and Wellington Management Co have been asked for information related to the insider trading investigations that made the news on Sunday and Monday. Wellington has been asked for documents from "federal officials". Janus has filed a form 8-K (you can read it at http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065865/000110465910059711/a10-21753_18k.htm) to cover their Regulation FD Disclosures. The filing states: "Janus Capital Group Inc. ("Janus") has received an inquiry regarding the recently disclosed insider trading investigation on Wall Street calling for general information and intends to cooperate fully with that inquiry. Janus does not intend to provide any further updates concerning this matter unless and until required by applicable law."


The Wall Street Journal reports that MFS Investment Management of Boston has also been contacted, but they have declined comment.


"Fed pondered radical steps amid weaker outlook" (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AI2AQ20101123)


"Fund firms asked for documents by authorities" (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AL4DT20101123)


[1] With their number one hit single "Shellin' UR Hood"

Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) News Release

Here. Have some surprise regional and state employment data.

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The latest Regional and State Employment and Unemployment news release (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/laus.pdf) was issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Highlights are below.
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In October, 19 states and the District of Columbia registered over-the-month unemployment rate decreases, 14 states recorded increases, and 17 states had no change. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 41 states and the District of Columbia, decreased in 6 states, and was unchanged in 3 states.

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News releases archives:
http://www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/all_nr.htm
To subscribe or unsubscribe to BLS news releases
please visit http://www.bls.gov/bls/list.htm
For help, email news_service@bls.gov
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Existing Home Sales

North Korea hasn't managed to start shelling any islands off the coast of the United States but, based on how the markets are reacting, they may as well have. Fortunately, North Korea's actions today don't really have any impact on home sales in the US from last month. Unfortunately, even if the numbers are good, nobody will really care.

Existing home sales are exciting for the markets. They mean loans are being taken out. They mean the housing market isn't totally dead yet. They mean big ticked durable goods orders (really, has anyone ever really liked the appliances the house comes with?). They mean sales at hardware stores. They mean a thousand little trickle-down impacts on GDP that join together like the rushing of mighty waters to drive the economic engines of our nation and propel our GDP to undreamed-of heights [1].

Unless the numbers are bad. Then sad broker is sad.

Now, I think I've said it a dozen times already this week {2], but in September there were 4,530,000 existing homes sold (a 10.0% increase from August's sales). The smart guys in the expensive suits who look at this sort of thing are expecting only 4,500,000 sales for October. Are they right?

Well, no. Sad broker is sad.

The official information is on the website of the National Association of Realtors, at http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/11/october_retreat. In a nutshell, we hit only 4,430,000 existing home sales (a 2.2% decline from September).

So, not as good as expected. Not as bad as 200 artillery shells landing near your home, but still not great.

[1] Which, historically speaking, results in an unsustainable housing bubble that bursts and destroys the world economy. But who wants to learn from history?
[2] Three times actually. Counting this one. But who's counting.

What In The World Is Happening this Morning?

Well, right off the bat the futures are down. The credit for this goes first and foremost to the Dear Leader Kim Jong-il and his ever-so-subtle market manipulating strategies. To whit, North Korea has shelled Yeongyeong, a South Korean island about 75 miles west of Seoul. So far two soldiers have been confirmed dead and 17 more wounded, and three civilians have been injured. And by shelling, I mean "...at least 200 North Korean shells hit Yeonpyeong". North Korea has claimed that South Korea started the fight by shelling them first; South Korea did confirm it was "...conducting military drills in the area beforehand but had fired west, not north." There's nothing quite like the prospects of a war that never actually ended flaring back up to ruin everyone's day.

Racing the sun westward we come to Ireland, where Prime Minister Brian Cowen has been forced to come to terms with the fact that his nations is two steps from wandering into Europe with a dirty rag, smearing it on Germany's windshield, and then asking for spare change for "cleaning" it. Part of his coalition government is in negotiations with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to borrow something like 60% of Ireland's GDP as a bailout. The rest of his government is demanding that he sacrifice his own life that his blood may renew the fertility of the land, or at least that he resign immediately or face a vote of no confidence.

"North Korea shells South in fiercest attack in decades" (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AM0YS20101123)
"Korea tensions weigh on stock futures" (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69O1D320101123)

But enough of these foreigners! How are things looking close to home?

Gross Domestic Product is the theme of the hour - or it would be, had the "Dear Leader" not decided to present his son and heir-apparent - the Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong-un - with a bouncing baby resumption of hostilities for no reason anyone can work out (that doesn't involve the sort of megalomaniacal insanity possessed by the dictator of North Korea). Gross Domestic Product is, of course, private consumption plus gross investments plus government spending plus exports minus imports, which is a fancy way of saying it is value of all goods and services produced within a country in a year. The Street savors the sweet, sweet scent of GDP like nothing else because it is the single clearest picture available to tell us how the economy is doing. Is GDP increasing? Let us rejoice! Is GDP failing? Let us offer a fatted calf on the alter of John Maynard Keynes, and look to stimulus to save us!

Last month the initial estimates for Q3 2010 GDP, and the Q3 2010 GDP price index (AKA yet another way to estimate inflation) were released. These figures go through an interesting process of initial estimates the first month, then preliminary revision results the second month, and then final revision results the final month. So whatever we announce today still won't be the final for-real GDP for Q3. But still, the Street loves it some GDP figures, so here we go:

The initial Q3 estimate for GDP was 2.0%, with the GDP price index at 2.3%. In the pre-release hype, analysts were looking for the GDP to be revised upwards to 2.4%, with the price index remaining unchanged at 2.3%. The announcement was due out 20 minutes ago, so how did we do?

The actual release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis may be read at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm. GDP was revised upwards to 2.5% for Q3, with the price index remaining unchanged at 2.3%. Of that:
* real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.8% in Q3 (an accelerating increase from Q2's 2.2% increase)
* real exports of goods and services increased 6.3% in Q3 (slowing from Q2's 9.1% increase)
* real imports of goods and services increased 16.8% in Q3 (slowing from Q2's 33.5% increase)
* real federal government expenditures and gross investments increased 8.9% in Q3 (slowing from Q2's 9.1% increase)

Good news? Yes. Good enough to overcome the North Korean Crazy Train? Probably not.

At 10, we're looking at Existing Home Sales. We had 4,530,000 units sold in September. The Street is expecting that to pull back a little; they really only expect to see 4,500,000 units sold in October.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Quantitative Easing Explained

This video, which you've probably seen by now, takes some political cheap shots. But I still find it hysterical.

How Stores Get You To Spend More

Black Friday, also known as this Friday, more or less kicks off the holiday shopping season. And while I'm in favor of corporations making a profit, and of good GDP numbers, here's some tips from CNNMoney.com to help you remember that those Black Friday sales aren't always the deals they sound like. Particularly if you get yourself roped into buying more than you intended to.

Have fun boosting the economy and all, but caveat emptor.

How stores get you to spend more <http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/22/pf/saving/holiday_savings/index.htm>
By Jennie Bragg, producer
November 22, 2010


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The average person will spend 15 hours shopping for gifts this holiday season, according to Consumer Reports.

And whether we like it, or even realize it, stores are filled with tricks and triggers to make consumers spend more.

Before you hit the mall, keep a few things in mind to be sure you don't get duped.

Early bird specials

Retailers across the country have been advertising early bird promotions for those shoppers who are ready to spend some cash even before Black Friday.

While shopping early might help you to score a good deal, in many cases there are limited quantities of advertised sale items.

"The thing that gets people about these specials is the idea that there is a limited quantity of something," suggests Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group. "When shoppers see exact quantities of an item advertised or in the store, they are afraid it will run out and they buy right away."

Retailers usually get multiple shipments of popular items throughout the holiday season, so if you don't get what you need in round one, try again later or look for the item online.

And keep in mind, the prices on Black Friday and around Thanksgiving may be advertised as sales, but retailers have been know to jack up prices during this time and then lower them, leaving the price you pay higher than before.

Promotional mailings

You have probably already received a slew of holiday mailings from various department stores and other retailers, but promotional gift cards are the things that really bring in the shoppers and make them spend.

"We are seeing more and more gift cards sent to consumers without any strings attached," says Britt Beemer. "This could be a ten or twenty dollar gift card mailed to you for use on any purchase."

These types of cards are great for retailers.

Shoppers are lured into a store with the promise of a small discount and often end up spending much more than they ever anticipated.

Many shoppers are also enticed by the idea of buy one get one (BOGO).

Take a step back. Do you need two of this item? If not, walk away.

And remember, nothing in life is free. BOGO is the same as getting something on the sale rack. A promotion like this, while it is still a good deal, is likely giving you 50% off.

Scents and sounds

The ambiance a retailer sets through music and aroma affects your mood and in turn the purchases you make in that store.

"While scents don't always work to keep customers in general retail stores," says Beemer. "This is a technique that works really well in places like William Sonoma when they are cooking something."

And beware of the festive tunes in the background.

"If I were going to have a store, I would be more concerned about the music the customers are listening to than the scent in the room," suggests Beemer. "The Christmas music on in a store can keep people in a store 30% to 40% longer."

If you find yourself humming your way to the cash register, you might want to rethink your purchases.

Sales people and door greeters

Have you ever wondered why it seems like there are so many more sale people in every store around holiday time?

The more people around to tell you your purchase is an excellent decision, the better.

"The store with great customer service and people skills will be the store that makes the most sales," says Beemer. "It is very simple. Sales people who make customers feel like they are making a good decision will make more sales.

FBI Beavers and Irish Bailouts and Giving Thanks

Those of you who read it may have noticed this headline in the Wall Street Journal: "U.S. in Vast Insider Trading Probe" (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704170404575624831742191288.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLETopStories). It's big, it's looking at multiple insider-trading rings, and the fallout could conceivably change the way the financial industry is allowed to do business. Some of the things the probes are looking at are:
* Was nonpublic information passed along by "expert network" companies to hedge and mutual funds?
* Did Goldman Sachs Group Inc bankers leak information about transactions that benefited certain investors?
* Have independent analysts and research boutiques been knowingly allowing clients to trade on inside information?
* Did traders at "a number of hedge funds and trading firms" improperly obtain and use nonpublic information about pending merger deals.

Ignites (http://www.ignites.com/c/124284/11924/insider_trading_probe_involves_funds_report, which may require a subscription to access) points out that currently "no mutual fund firms are identified by name as suspects, but Janus, Wellington and MFS are known to be among the clients of one analyst whom the FBI has accused of relaying inside information".

As of right now, no charges have been made, although a Federal grand jury is hearing evidence right now. Look for some indictments to be handed down in the next few weeks.

In world news, Bloomberg reports (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-22/ireland-seeks-european-union-rescue-as-outsized-crisis-overwhelms-nation.html) that Ireland has recanted its claims from a week ago that it does not need financial aid. On Sunday, Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen formally ate crow and requested financial assistance from the EU and the IMF. There are no official numbers - the details are still being worked out - but Goldman Sachs Group estimates that they may be tapping 95 billion euros. To put that in the market-crushing perspective it requires, Greece borrowed about 47% of its GDP. Ireland will most likely be borrowing close to 60%. If you've noticed that the futures are down this morning (and they are), this is why.

With all that in mind, we don't really have any market moving reports due out on this, the first day of the Thanksgiving trading week. Tomorrow we get the release of the Q3 2010 preliminary revision for GDP (analysts are expecting to see real GDP revised upward to 2.4% from the initial 2.0% estimate, with no change in the price index) and existing home sales (the Street is looking for a drop of 30,000 from September's 4,530,000 units). Wednesday brings durable goods orders, personal income and outlays, first time jobless claims, consumer sentiment, and new home sales. All by 10 AM. Then the markets are closed on Thursday (for Thanksgiving generally and, it appears, specifically for giving thanks for not having been indicted yet), and they close early on Friday.