"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

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Wednesday, January 26, 2011

New Home Sales

About an hour ago, I indicated that the analysts were looking for 300,000 new single-family home sales in December 2010.  Since then, the US Census Bureau has released its official report, and we actually hit a seasonally adjusted 329,000 (up from November's 280,000 but still behind December 2009's 356,000).  The median price of new homes sold in December was $241,500, while the average price was $291,400.
 
So yeah, that'll bring a little happiness to the markets.  Can you smell the sweet, sweet scent of trickle-down economic impact?

Market News That Isn't The State Of The Union

Yeah, sure, the State of the Union and its promises of job creation and freezes in government spending and reductions in corporate taxes has excited the market.  But that's not everything that's going on today.  What else is happening?
 
Well, let's start off with Monday's approval for a $150 million settlement with the Securities and Exchange commission.  The SEC had originally filed two lawsuits against Bank of America, alleging that the bank had misled shareholders about Merrill Lynch bonus payouts (about $3.6 billion) and losses (around $15.8 billion) when they were persuading shareholders to approve the purchase of Merrill Lynch.  The approval of the settlement ends BofA's legal battle with the SEC, but US District Judge Rakoff seems to have made it clear that he doesn't really care for the settlement.  He stated that it was clear that BofA failed to adequately disclose the scope of Merrill's losses or bonus payments - "a prudent bank shareholder, if informed of the aforementioned facts, would have thought twice about approving the merger" - and indicated that he approved the settlement only because the law requires him to give "substantial deference to the SEC in these matters.  Both Bank of America and the SEC are reported to be pleased with the results, but legal experts believe that the scathing acceptance will actually serve as both guidance and ammunition for additional lawsuits against Bank of America.
 
In a separate suit, Bank of America has agreed to pay $10 million to settle SEC charges that "first, Merrill's proprietary traders misused institutional customer information which was improperly disclosed by the firm's market makers.  Second, Merrill traders improperly charged mark-ups and mark-downs on certain riskless principal trades[1] of institutional and high net worth customers for which the firm had agreed to charge only a commission equivalent."  The settlement is largely considered a slap on the wrist.  But, before you get outraged by this, consider the fact that this Equity Strategy Desk hasn't operated since BofA took over Merrill, so BofA is paying a fine for something they didn't actually do.
 
The SEC is also looking into changing the legal definition of an "accredited investor".  Currently, anyone with a net worth of more than $1 million qualifies.  The proposed new definition, while leaving the $1 million threshold intact, would require the value of an individual's home to be excluded from the net worth calculation.  The change is proposed to bring securities regulations into compliance with the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, and the proposal is open for comment until March 11, 2011.
 
Toyota, which is still struggling to no longer known as the Russian joke company[2], has announced that it will recall over 1.7 million vehicles worldwide.  1.34 million vehicles are being recalled because of a faulty fuel pump and connecting pipe[2], and 335,000 Lexus vehicles are being recalled due to a faulty fuel pressure sensor.
 
New Home Sales figures are due out at 10 AM, and the consensus estimate is that sales will climb to a level of 300,000 units for December 2010.
 
The FOMC announcement is due out at 2:15 PM EST.  The markets will no doubt hold their collective breaths, then relax when the Fed announces that they will not change anything.  Expect to hear that they are glad to see economic optimism, but remain concerned about unemployment.  You know, the same things they always say.
 
[1]  According to FINRA, this is "a transaction in which a member after having received an order to buy (sell) a security, purchases (sells) the security as principal and satisfies the original order by selling (buying) as principal at the same price.
[2]  "In Soviet Russia, the car accelerates you!"
[3]  Toyota's second biggest recall for a single defect.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Consumer Confidence

Last month, we saw evidence of a decline in consumer confidence.  The actual Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 53.3, while the Present Situation Index was at 24.9 and the Expectations Index was at 72.3.
 
For January, analysts were expecting a mild increase in the Consumer Confidence Index (up to 54.3), with no word on what they thought about the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index.
 
How did we do?  Well, according to The Conference Board, we had a massive surge in confidence.  The Consumer Confidence Index went up to 60.6[1] (savagely beating expectations), while the Present Situation Index rose to 31.0 and the Expectations Index rose to 80.3.  People are still more pessimistic than optimistic about the economy, but the number of optimists are growing and the number of pessimists are shrinking.  More specifically:
  • Those saying business conditions are "good" increased to 9.8% of respondents, while those saying business conditions are "bad" remained pretty flat at 40.4%.
  • Those saying jobs are "plentiful" rose 100 bps to 5.2%, while those saying jobs are "hard to get" declined 260 bps to 43.4%.
  • Those expecting an improvement in business conditions over the next 6 months increased 220 bps to 19.0%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen declined 50 bps to 11.3%.
  • Those anticipating more jobs in the next 6 months increased 180 bps to 16.0%, while those expecting fewer jobs declined 170 bps to 17.5%.
  • Those expecting an increase in their incomes rose 150 bps to 11.4%.
So.  Not a lot of confidence yet, but definite improvement.
 
[1]  The last time we got near this number was May 2010, when the Consumer Confidence Index stood at 62.7.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Home prices are down, pretty much across the board  for November (the most period covered by the most recent report).
 
As you recall, this is a set of indices looking at the growth rate of home prices in a 10-City area and a 20-City area.  The 10-City Composite fell 0.8% for the month, and the 20-City Composite fell 1.0% for the month.  In fact, out of all the covered Metropolitan Areas, only San Diego saw a month-over-month increase in housing prices, and that was up a bare 0.1%.  Eight markets - Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle, and Tampa - have hit a new low since their peak in 2006-2007.
 
On the up side, this means it is a buyer's market (assuming you can get a mortgage).  On the down side, this means falling municipal revenue[1], which casts further doubt on the stability of the municipal bond market.  Also, this is a pretty strong indicator that new and existing home sales are soft.  Prices tend to fall as supply increases, and supply (in homes) increases directly as new homes are completed and existing homes are put on the market.
 
Or, as the report puts it, "With these numbers more analysts will be calling for a double-dip in home prices.  Let's take a moment to define a double-dip as seeing the 10- and 20-City composites set new post-peak lows.  The series are now only 4.8% and 3.3% above their April 2009 lows, suggesting that a double-dip could be confirmed before Spring."
 
[1]  Most municipalities have property taxes as their number one source of revenue.  If home prices are falling, people will have their properties reassessed in order to pay less in taxes.

FW: SEC Commissioner: Budget Woes Will Impact Fund Oversight


SEC Commissioner: Budget Woes Will Impact Fund Oversight

In a strongly worded public statement in response to an SEC study on enhanced investment advisor oversight, Commissioner Elisse Walter registered her concern about what she says is woefully inadequate funding for the agency’s exam resources.

In her statement, Walter acknowledges that she voted in favor of releasing the study, but that she is disappointed in its conclusions. She wrote that for the first time since serving as commissioner, “I feel that it is necessary for me to write separately in order to clarify and emphasize certain facts, and ensure that Congress knows that the current resource problem is severe, that the problem will only be worse in the future, and that a solution is needed now.”

Walter declined to offer further comment beyond her statement.

Although the study looks at creating a uniform fiduciary standard for brokers and advisors, Walter’s statement delves into the challenges SEC examiners will encounter under new oversight duties proscribed by Dodd-Frank and how that will result in less oversight of the fund industry.

Her statement comes as the Republican-controlled House threatens necessary funding to carry out the provisions contained in Dodd-Frank. The two Republican commissioners — Kathleen Casey and Troy Paredes — issued a joint statement criticizing the study. They question the need for overhauling investment advice rules and the potential negative consequences of that action.

In a footnote in Walter’s statement, she states that although mutual funds are not directly covered by Dodd-Frank for purposes of the study, “resources to examine funds are at risk as well.” The footnote goes on to state that examinations of investment companies are expected to drop in fiscal year 2011 and “the need to cover the fund industry will place additional strains on the examination resources [investment companies] share with advisers.”

Walter’s concern that the SEC’s struggle for funding will translate into weaker oversight of the industry makes sense, some industry sources say. The SEC’s Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations (OCIE) is responsible for examining funds and their advisors, which are nearly always examined jointly.

The Securities and Exchange Commission study, released last week, provided three options, including allowing the SEC to maintain oversight and impose a user fee to cover examination costs; allowing Congress to choose a self-regulatory organization to regulate advisors; and having the SEC delegate to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (Finra) the authority to examine large brokers registered as advisors.

Walter takes to task the SEC staff’s study for being biased in favor of the user fee option because the study claims it would cost less than the SRO option.

She points to the study’s statement that the SEC’s and Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s experience with SROs shows that SROs could aid the agency’s oversight with more frequent examinations. The study notes, for instance, that Finra examined 57% of its members in 2008 and 54% in 2009, while the National Futures Association, another SRO, examined 33% of its members in 2008 and 30% in 2009.

"Thus, OCIE’s current examination rate for investment advisers (9%) — which it estimates could drop as low as 7% in 2011 if additional examiners are not added — would have to increase by nearly five times to reach the average SRO examination rate for those years (43.5%), and more than six times to reach the average rate at Finra,” Walter wrote in her statement.

Walter cites additional burdens and the diversion of resources from the advisory area due to other new tasks OCIE will have to take on because of Dodd-Frank, including:

-The number of large, private fund advisors needing to register with the SEC, which will jump from 38% to 58%, and the increased time spent due to higher risk associated with large hedge funds

-The requirement that municipal advisors register with the SEC, which could translate into thousands of new entities and more than 20,000 individuals

-Annual examinations of credit rating agencies

-The requirement that security-based swap dealers, major security-based swap participants and security-based swap data repositories register with the SEC and be subject to examination

-An expected increase in examinations due to tips, complaints or referrals from the whistle-blower program

“Significantly, OCIE is not able to add any new staff to conduct examinations of investment advisers or any other entities under the Commission’s jurisdiction, and in fact will continue to divert resources from the advisory area in order to address other examination priorities,” Walter wrote.

David Hearth, partner at Paul Hastings, says that in the normal examination process two letters would be issued, one requesting the investment company’s books and records and a similar letter requesting the investment advisor’s books and records. He says it is rare for an examination to be solely focused on the mutual fund or the advisor to that mutual fund.

“So when the SEC staff shows up on the premises of the advisor, the examination would cover both because these exams are typically done jointly,” he says.

Shannon Behara, managing director at ACA Compliance Group, agrees that it would be detrimental to the exam process to separate the advisor’s exam from the mutual fund exam.

“Looking at the investment company without looking at the fundamental service provider in the investment advisor does not make a huge amount of sense,” Behara says. “I think whatever resources they decide to go with, whether it’s user fees or the SRO option, that it will affect registered investment companies.”

Hearth does not agree that OCIE needs to reach the examination frequency of Finra and suggests that it be allowed to keep more of what it collects. The agency also may better serve its mission by enhancing its efforts to use risk-based examinations that are shorter and more frequent and “may give the SEC better coverage of the industry than longer, traditional exams,” because they can do fewer of these, Hearth says.

Diane Ambler, partner at K&L Gates, in June joined other attorneys on the Federal Bar Association Securities Law Committee Executive Council in calling on Congress to allow the SEC to self-fund instead of sending what it collects to the Treasury and having Congress appropriate its budget every year. The group is made up of securities attorneys, many of whom were former SEC senior officers and now represent the industry on agency issues.

As it stands now, the SEC is “subject to the whims of Congress,” Ambler says. The congressional budgetary hold-ups with the Republican-controlled House have already resulted in the SEC's putting off deadlines it set for proposed rules and studies mandated by Dodd-Frank.

“The fact is the SEC has to look for other ways to make ends meet,” Ambler says. “It is given responsibilities that far outweigh its financial resources.”

Roger Joseph, head of Bingham McCutchen's investment management practice group, says, however, that even if OCIE is beset with new challenges, funds have a chief compliance officer and structure that should provide some comfort to examiners. A CCO is required to do annual reviews and report to the board.

“There are a variety of safeguards and checks and balances that are already in place,” Joseph says. “It is not a structure or system that is relying exclusively on SEC inspections in order to ensure compliance.”

International Indicators

You miss one day, you miss... well, not too much, actually.  There just wasn't a whole lot out yesterday.
 
Today?  Well, today's a different story.  Let's start out in the Pacific Basin, where Australia has released their CPI figures for Q4 2010.  Technically this was actually released at 7:30 PM EST yesterday, but - since it came out after market close yesterday - we'll pretend it counts for today.  Q3 saw a 0.7%increase in CPI for the quarter, and the analysts are expecting an additional 0.7% increase.  The actual results are better than expected, coming in with only a 0.4% increase for Q4 and a 2.7% increase for 2010.  Overall, not too shabby.  But, fruit prices were up 15.5% and vegetable prices were up 11.4%, driven by the Queensland floods.  As a result, the Reserve Bank of Australia is predicting that prices will be up substantially in Q1 2011 (and possibly Q2 as well).
 
The Bank of Japan has announced - to nobody's surprise - that they will be leaving their key interest rate unchanged at 0 - 0.1%.  the vote was unanimous.
 
Great Britain has released preliminary figures for Q4 GDP, and they are not figures that will make British economists happy.  Q3 closed out with .7% GDP growth and, based on a number of factors, the economists were expecting things to slow to a Q4 growth of 0.4% (with 2.5% GDP for the year).  The real figures?  Well, they came in at -0.5% for Q4, with 2010 GDP closing out at 1.7%.  Ouch.
 
last on the agenda is Canadian CPI, where analysts are expecting 0.1% CPI for December (-0.2% core CPI) and 2.4% CPI for the year (1.6% core).  The actual figures?  Marginally better than expected, actually.  December CPI came in at 0.0% (-0.3% for the core), with 2010 CPI wrapping up at 2.4% (1.5% core).  On the down side, gasoline prices were up 13% for the year, and overall energy costs were up 10.5% for the year.
 
And what does the future hold?  9 AM sees the release of the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index, and 10 AM sees the release of US Consumer Confidence.  Also, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting starts today, so brace yourself for a rousing round of "interest rates will remain unchanged because, while we think things are starting to improve, we're still concerned about tightening the money supply at this time" tomorrow at 2:15 PM.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Existing Home Sales! Leading Indicators! The Philadelphia Fed!

First off, existing home sales.  You want to see this up for the trickle-down impact.  It's not as significant as new home sales, but people will still tend to take out mortgages and buy durable goods when they buy an existing home, so good numbers are still things that can make the market happy.  And the market is looking for a little happiness on this one.  November saw 4.68 million new sales, and analysts are calling for 4.9 million sales in December.  For the actual figures we turn, as always, to the National Association of Realtors.  How did things turn out?  On a seasonally adjusted basis, we saw an expectations-beating 5.28 million sales.  The national median existing home price was $168,800, and distressed homes rose to a 36% market share.
 
Next up, The Conference Board's index of leading indicators.  Last month, the index was up 1.1, and analysts are expecting things to cool off to only a 0.6 increase on the index.  And what does The Conference Board say to this?  The Conference Board says "The US LEI Increases Sharply Again".  December sees us up 1.0 (beating expectations) to a level of 112.4.  And why do you care?  You care because leading indicators are seen as pointing the direction the economy is heading.  If the leading indicators are pointing up, it should mean good times ahead.
 
Finally, we have the Philadelphia Fed's January 2011 Business Outlook Survey.  December's results were revised downwards from 24.3 to 20.8 (not great), but the analysts are still optimistic and expecting to see a 20.0 for January.  The actual result is a 19.3, close but no cigar.  On the other hand, this is the fourth consecutive month of positive readings for the index, which shows continued improvement in new orders, demand for manufactured goods, and shipments.  Also, 25% of reporting firms indicated an increase in employment while only 7% reported a decline.  Costs are increasing (which we knew from the PPI), but the majority of reporting firms expect to see growth continue.
 
So what, you say?  Well, this is rather like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey (from Monday), but bigger.  The Philadelphia Federal Reserve District covers a larger geographic area, so it's considered to be a little more representative of the nation's economic activity.  The takeaway that traders are likely to get from this report is that, while things aren't perfect for manufacturers, they are looking up.  Strongly.