"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

The Required Disclosures

The information presented in this blog and its individual articles is provided for informational use only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer for a particular security. The contents reflect the views and opinions of the individual writer as of the date the article was written and do not necessarily represent the views of the individual writer on the current date. They also do not in any way, shape, or form represent the views of the Firm Never-To-Be-Named. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and The Great Redoubt and its individual writers disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views should not be relied on as investment advice, and because investment decisions for any security are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any contributor to The Great Redoubt. Neither The Great Redoubt nor any individual author can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Please consult your tax or financial advisor for additional information concerning your specific situation.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

I Seem To Owe The CBO An Apology

I was a little (well, a lot) unfair when I went on my rant about the report on the effects of the stimulus.
That's it. That is all the report can really tell us. 671,607 FTE jobs for three months. Everything else is conjecture and estimates and, when you get right down to it, make-believe. There is no data to support the report's claims that they impacted real GDP or that they had any meaningful impact on unemployment. There is not enough data to prove that ARRA had any real or meaningful impact.

Try again, CBO. Bring us actual evidence next time. A report telling us that you can't actually demonstrate any causal link between ARRA and anything meaningful in the economy is not good enough.
A little further research indicates that it really isn't the CBO's fault that the data was a joke. They don't set or implement policy. All they do is interpret data for Congress. It was ARRA itself (specifically section 1512) that set the compliance and reporting standards.

The reports are still a joke. That hasn't changed. But we should blame the legislators that wrote the joke into law, rather than the Federal agency that is forced to make sense out of the joke.

No comments:

Post a Comment