First Time Jobless Claims

And finally, in our bumper crop of market data, we have First Time Jobless Claims.

 

Last week, I had a little fun with the analyst predictions that there would be 420,000 new claims for the week ending 7/2, pointing out that this same number had been predicted for several weeks in a row.  When we got the actual results, it turned out that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ending 7/2 came in at 418,000, beating expectations by 2000.  The actual initial claims for the same week were up 13,514 to a level of 416,798, and the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending 6/18 fell 52,052 to a level of 7,459,561.  So, if you don't look at the actual figures, that wasn't too bad.

 

Also, you want to not think too hard about the fact that the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs fell 52,052 in one week of a month that produced only 18,000 new jobs.  That makes it hard to really get behind the excitement over beating expectations last week.

 

For the week ending 7/9, the Econoday-surveyed analysts are rather more optimistic.  They aren't predicting 420,000 initial claims for the week.  No, they're calling for "only" 405,000 initial claims.

 

For the actual results,w e go now to the US Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.  Right out of the gate, we see that last week's expectations-beating 418k new claims has been revised upwards - by a substantial 9000 - to 427,000.  That's not great news, and it's the sort of thing that makes you question the accuracy of their report that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for the week ending July 9 is only 405,000 (which does nail expectations dead on).  I mean, not to put too fine a point on it, the advance figures have been revised upwards for 16 out of the last 20 reports.  That sort of thing somewhat shakes my faith in their advance figures.

 

But those figures are the only figures we have to work with, and they're the figures everyone gets excited about.  So lets call this "meeting expectations" and get on with life.  The advance unadjusted number of initial claims for the week ending 7/9 comes in at 470,671 - an increase of 53,873.  Finally, the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending 6/25 rose 25,333 to a level of 7,484,894.