"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

The Required Disclosures

The information presented in this blog and its individual articles is provided for informational use only and should not be considered investment advice or an offer for a particular security. The contents reflect the views and opinions of the individual writer as of the date the article was written and do not necessarily represent the views of the individual writer on the current date. They also do not in any way, shape, or form represent the views of the Firm Never-To-Be-Named. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and The Great Redoubt and its individual writers disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views should not be relied on as investment advice, and because investment decisions for any security are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any contributor to The Great Redoubt. Neither The Great Redoubt nor any individual author can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Please consult your tax or financial advisor for additional information concerning your specific situation.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Retail Sales

Next in our fine harvest of market data comes Retail Sales - the US Census Bureau report about the changes in total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods[1].  This is another of those reports that gets the analysts all excited.  The Street likes increasing sales, because that means increasing corporate revenue, which (hopefully) means increasing corporate profits.  The Street also likes seeing the economy working and increasing GDP.  Unless they're short the Wilshire 5000 or something crazy like that.
 
Anyway, May was anticipated to be soul-crushingly bad.  The analysts proved to be wrong in this, because May was just mixed.  Overall retails sales declined 0.2%, but increased 0.3% ex-auto.  In the wake of that, the Econoday-surveyed analysts have apparently decided to work on the theory that "if you expect nothing you won't be disappointed".  They're calling for a 0.0% change in overall retail sales, with a 0.1% increase in ex-auto retail sales.
 
So let's hit the Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services June 2011 report, and see what actually happened.  And what happened is that we beat expectations, with retail sales increasing 0.1%.  That deserves a "yay" for beating expectations by a tiny amount.  We also beat expectations looking at the ex-auto figures, showing a 0.2% increase.  Again, "yay".
 
I joke, obviously.  It really isn't a huge amount, but it is still better than missing expectations.
 
Anyway, building material & garden equipment and supplies dealers had the best month, with a 1.3% increase in sales.  That seems to make sense, since a) June is a good month for gardening and building and working outdoors, and b) we've got a lot of areas trying to recover from floods and tornados and wildfires that happened in May and June.  You rather need building materials for that sort of thing.  Furniture and home furnishings stores had the worst month, with a 0.8% decline in sales.
 
[1]  Physical products.  Things you can touch, handle, manipulate, eat, and so forth.  There are also intangible goods, which are actually services.

No comments:

Post a Comment