News That Isn't Economic Data

Most Asian stock markets will be closed on February 3 and 4 for the Lunar New Year. China's markets (except for Hong Kong) will be closed on February 7 and 8 as well.

Egyptian President Mubarak's promise not to seek reelection in September hasn't really impressed protesters. Pro-Mubarak and anti-Mubarak forces got together in Cairo last night and beat the blood out of each other. The army and police forces were present, but chose not to get involved.

The Egyptian situation is sending ripples throughout the Middle East. The nation voted most likely to have a dictator - excuse me, President - sneak out of town in the middle of the night with the nation's gold supply is Yemen. President Ali Abdullah Saleh[1], who has spent more than than thirty years in power, has announced that he will not seek re-election when his current term ends in 2013, and he also won't simply vote for his son to replace him[2]. A planned series of protests named "The Day of Rage" may have had something to do with that. King Abdullah II bin al-Hussein of Jordan[3] has fired his government and appointed a new prime minister in the face of protests.

Australia, home of roughly half of the poisonous animals in the world, is being reminded that nature simply does not approve of human occupation of the island continent. With the floods finally beginning to recede[4], the category 5 cyclone Yasi (with winds gusting up to 183 mph) is getting ready to come ashore in Queensland..Yes, the same Queensland that is currently underwater. The Australian Weather Bureau is warning that the "impact is likely to be more life threatening than any experienced during recent generations". Torrential rains and a storm surge of up to 2 meters above the usual high tide line are expected.

{1] Who didn't so much "get elected president by the will of the people" as "brutally seize power in a military coup, murder the sitting president, and execute 20 of the officers that supported him to consolidate power". There are regular elections in Yemen, though. If, by "election", you mean "the regular murder of anyone who opposes President Saleh".

[2] Under the Yemen system of "one man, one vote". President Saleh is The Man, and he has The Vote.

[3] Who took power in 1999 when his father died of perfectly natural causes. Legitimate natural causes. Not natural causes in the sense that it is perfectly natural to die when you are tied to a stake by the army and shot several dozen times.

[4] And with the rumors of sharks swimming through flooded city streets turning out to be just that - rumors. Visually exciting as that would have been, to people who aren't in Queensland.

What Happened In The Market?

We had bad Case-Shiller and bad Consumer Confidence figures, and the markets still ended on the up side of mixed (Dow up 20.51, NASDAQ down 4.39, S&P 500 up 0.07). What happened?

Reuters, at least, gives the credit indirectly to the blizzard and directly to energy stocks being boosted by an increase in oil prices. Why the blizzard? It helped push oil prices near to a 26-month high (February oil futures were up $0.38 to $91.38 a barrel), and the rising oil prices helped push oil producers up in the markets.

I haven't seen the figures yet, but it wouldn't surprise me to see that commodities in general were either flat or down today - China announced that it will cut its export quotas for rare earth minerals[1] by 11.4%. This is a concern, because these elements are used in quite a bit of high-tech manufacturing[2], and because China produces something like 97% of these minerals. The EU, the United States, and Japan are particularly upset, and there is some possibility that the US will file a complaint with the World Trade Organization.

The Singapore Exchange is in the process of trying to take over the Australian Exchange to the tune of $8 billion US dollars. This is somewhat controversial in Australia, because their major exchange would become a subsidiary of the Singapore Exchange, and the government of Singapore owns 23.5% of the Singapore Exchange. As of December 15 the deal had been approved by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. Now it just has to be approved by the Treasurer of Australia, pass through the Australian Parliament[3], and then be approved by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Investors are cautious.

[1] There's reasonable list available on Wikipedia.

[2] Wind turbines, hybrid cars, iPhones, flat screen TVs, and anything else that has a use for magnetism, luminescence, and strength.

[3] Which seems to be of the opinion that the merger is "fanatical marketism that is taking away our sovereign right to self determination"