Metrics: European And Canadian

Let's start with Europe, shall we? We've got economic data flowing in from Switzerland, Germany, France, and the EU as a whole.

In Switzerland, seasonally adjusted unemployment remains flat at 3.6% (missing expectations by 10 bps), while non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rises 20 bps to a level of 3.8% (also missing expectations by 10 bps).

Germany's got a ton of data coming out, and it's all bad. First off, their merchandise trade[1] surplus dropped E2.4 billion (brutally missing expectations, which anticipated an increase in the trade surplus to E15.0 billion) to a level of E11.8 billion in November. Imports jumped 380 bps for the month to a level of 4.1%, while exports rose 160 bps to a level of 0.5%. Retails sales fell 250 bps in November, dropping from a revised 0.1% (revised downward from the original 2.3% reported for October[2]) increase to decline 2.4% (also brutally missing expectations, which anticipated a decline to an increase of only 1.0%). Finally, to round out this trifecta of misery, industrial production fell 370 bps in November from a revised 3.0% increase to a 0.7% decline (missing expectations by 40 bps).

France is not experiencing much joy either. Their merchandise trade figures for November can be read in one of two ways: either as a E7.3 billion shift from a E3.43 billion trade surplus in October to a E3.87 billion trade deficit in November, or (using the revised October figures) as E0.16 billion shift from a E3.71 billion trade deficit to a E3.87 billion trade deficit. The first is an almost inexplicable single-month face-heel turn, and the second smacks of sheer incompetence amongst the offices of the French equivalent of the Department of Labor[3].

Do things get any better for the European Union as a whole? Well, their Q3 final revision for GDP cuts the quarter over quarter growth to 0.3% (down from the previous revision of 0.4%, and missing expectations that the final figure would remain 0.4%). Year over year GDP remains unchanged at 1.9%. the EU's unemployment rate remains unchanged at 10.1% in November, exactly meeting expectations.

On to Canada, where the Labor Force Survey shows things improving by at least a small amount. Employment rose 22,000 in December (up 6800) beating expectations by a small margin (analysts were expecting to see 20,300 new jobs). As a result, the unemployment rate for the year comes in at 7.6%, beating expectations by 10 bps.

Coming up next, we'll be looking at the US Employment Situation!

[1] Merchandise trade is imports and exports of tangible goods and services.

[2] There's no real explanation about how 0.1% was mistaken for 2.3% in the original data.

[3] I mean, really. How else do you look at the trade figures one month and say "Aha! We exported 3.43 billion more Euros worth of goods than we imported! Viva la France!" and then the next month say "Our bad. We made a 7.3 billion Euro mistake in our calculations"? Were they holding the balance sheet upside down?

French GDP, Swiss Consumption, and the Case-Shiller HPI

Leaving Japan behind, we cast our eyes westward towards Europe and the United States. France reported its final revision for Q3 GDP, showing that it softened slightly in the third quarter (growing only 0.3%), with year over year growth remaining unchanged at 1.7%. UBS released its (Swiss) Consumption Index, showing growth in consumer spending decreasing 9 bps from October's 1.72% to November's 1.63%.

Also from Europe, Yves Mersch is now on record as saying that "the recent European proposals for reform of the economic governance of the euro area go in the right direction, but are not ambitious enough to ensure a healthy and efficient functioning of monetary union." He would like to see faster responses to excessive deficits, with automatic sanctions applied early. And why should anyone care what Yves Mersch says? Because he's on the Governing council of the European Central Bank, making him a voice that will be heard as debate about the future of the euro and the European Union continues.

Arriving in the howling arctic wastes that were once the eastern seaboard of the United States of America, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is out. The 10-City Composite increased (barely) 0.2% while the 20-City Composite fell 0.8%, and home prices fell in all 20 metropolitan areas covered by the index.

Also in US news, the winter of our (fiscal) discontent is not made glorious summer by this son of Chicago. Not only do we not have a 2011 federal budget[1], now it has been announced that delivery of a FY 2012 budget will be delayed until around February 21. Mostly because the confirmation of the President's budget director wasn't finalized until November 18, and it takes a while to put a budget together.

Next up? Consumer confidence, in about half an hour.

[1] Blame for that can go to the Congress, though.

Christmas Eve Eve News Wrap-Up

Let's see what we can see...

In a refreshing change of pace for a European nation, Standard & Poor's has maintained it's AAA rating on French sovereign debt. "The stable outlook is based on our view of the French government's substantial achievements with its budgetary consolidation strategy, enabling it to meet its fiscal targets through 2013." There had been some serious concern about the nation's credit rating, mostly due to it's public debt[1], and the cost of insurance for their debt has tripled this year.

Ireland's High Court ruled that Allied Irish Banks can be taken over by the Irish government without shareholder approval. This clears the way for Dublin to pump 3.7 billion euros[2] into AIB, taking their ownership stake from 19% to 92% in the process. (There are, in other words, legitimate reasons why AIB was down about 12% in trading today.) The company will also be delisting from the main Irish and London exchanges.

On the lighter side, an anonymous source at Wikileaks has leaked all of the quarter million or so US diplomatic cables and military records to the Norwegian Aftenposten news service. Quis effluiet ipsos effluoes?[3]

[1] France's public debt stands at 77.60% of GDP, which is worse than Portugal, Italy, or Spain.

[2] Which is about half of the 6.1 billion euros it needs by February 28th to hit its mandatory 12% capitalization.

[3] Who leaks the leakers?

Metrics? Yeah, We've Got Them

From all over the world, we have them. The majority are from the United States today, but we have an international coalition of economic activity to review.

Right off the bat, New Zealand has had some bad economic performance. Their Q2 GDP was revised downward to 0.1% growth. Analysts were looking for 0.2% growth for Q3, and were rather surprised to instead see a 0.2% decline. This puts their GDP up 1.4% for the rolling year, missing the expectation of 1.9% by 50 bps. The decline is largely blamed on the manufacturing sector (particularly petroleum, chemicals, plastics, rubber, and machinery and equipment manufacturing), although construction and real estate took a dive as well.

French Consumer Manufactured Good Consumption and PPI are out as well. October was a bad month for French manufacturers. Their PPI was up 0.8% (making production more expensive), and simultaneously consumption of manufactured goods was down a revised 0.6% (down 0.3% year over year). Greater costs plus less actual sales equals a manufacturing sector rocking back and forth in the corner muttering "Redrum, redrum, redrum"[1] over and over again. Did things get better in November, or do all work and no play make Jacque a dull boy?

Well, French manufactured good consumption was up 2.8% in November, beating expectations by 180 bps and bringing the rolling year figures up to 1.5% growth - most of it driven by a 15% increase in automobile sales. The PPI, meanwhile, was up 0.4% (exactly in line with expectations). After that, you'd think the CAC 40 would be doing better than it is today.

Leapfrogging across the Atlantic we arrive in Canada, where GDP (which was down 0.1% in September) is anticipated to be up 0.3% for October. Hope springs eternal, but has been dashed by a dose of cold reality - there was growth, but only 0.2%. This has also pulled their rolling year GDP down to only 3.3%. Weep for the Loonie, my friends. Weep for the Loonie.

And now, the United States! Right now we've got Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Outlays, and Jobless Claims. Later, we add Consumer Sentiment and New Home Sales to the mix.

Durable Goods Orders were down 3.3% in October, with analysts predicting a less pessimistic (but still not confident) increase to only down 1.0% for November. The actual Census Bureau report shows that we missed expectations, coming in at a 1.3% decline in durable goods orders. This was largely driven by a 11.9% decline in transportation equipment orders, mostly from nondefense aircraft and parts.

October Personal Income was up 0.5%, with consumer spending up 0.4% and the core PCE price index unchanged. For November, analysts are looking for 0.2% growth in personal income, 0.5% growth in consumer spending, and 0.1% growth in the price index. The Bureau of Economic analysis has not yet seen fit to make the official press release available, so we turn to Econoday to find Personal Income up 0.3% (beating expectations), consumer spending up .4% (missing expectations) and the core PCE price index up 0.1% (right in line with expectations).

First time jobless claims were revised upwards to 423k (up from the original report of only 420k) for the week ending 12/11, and analysts are expecting that same number to happen again for the week ending 12/18. Turning to the US Department of Labor, we see that the advance figure for the week ending 12/18 is 420k new claims - exactly in line with expectations. No single state really stood out with significant increases in first time jobless claims, while New York and North Carolina led the pack in reductions in new claims.

Consumer Sentiment, due at 9:55 AM EST, is expected to climb 80 bps to 75.0%. New Home Sales, due at 10 AM EST, are expected to climb 17k to 300k new units.

[1] Maybe that should be "Ertruem, ertruem, ertruem"?