Black Friday Bickering

Preliminary estimates are beginning to trickle in from the battle-weary front lines of the Black Friday onslaught, and the results were really really great for retailers. Really great. Unless they weren't.

Let's start off with the rosy report. The National Retail Federation is reporting that:

...212 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend*, up from 195 million last year. People also spent more, with the average shopper this weekend spending $365.34, up from last year’s $343.31. Total spending reached an estimated $45.0 billion.

Not too shabby. That's more than GM managed to raise with their IPO, after all. But they report additional good news:

While shoppers seemed focused on getting good deals, items of strong value seemed to win out over the absolute lowest prices. According to the survey, both department stores (52.0% this year vs. 49.4% last year) and clothing stores (24.4% vs. 22.9%) saw healthy increases in traffic, while the percentage of people who shopped at discounters declined 7.2 percent, from 43.2 percent last year to 40.3 percent this year. As retailers leverage their websites to offer Black Friday prices to shoppers who don’t want to fight crowds, the percentage of people who shopped online this weekend rose a healthy 15.2 percent, from 28.5 percent last year to 33.6 percent this year – a strong sign heading into Cyber Monday.

Based on the strength of this survey, they're predicting that overall sales for the 2010 holiday season should be up 2.3%. That's still below the 10 year average of 2.5%, but its better than 2009's 0.4% increase and far, far better than 2008's 3.9% decrease. So Merry Christmas, the recession is over!

Right?

Well, not so fast.

The NRF is not the only entity out there making these sorts of reports and projections. Let us turn now to ShopperTrak. Their survey shows a slightly different picture:

The traditional kick off to the holiday shopping season provided mixed messages to retailers as Black Friday sales showed a very slight increase over last year despite record spending for the day 0.3 percent increase versus the same period in 2009. According to ShopperTrak, retail sales increased a very slight 0.3 percent versus last year with consumers spending $10.69 billion in various retail locations. Comparatively sales on Black Friday 2009 increased 0.5 percent versus Black Friday 2008, with $10.66 billion spent.

That was a little different. What do they say about sales projections for the 2010 holiday season?

Better than expected response to early sales promotions mixed with relatively mild weather throughout the country is already driving holiday traffic to malls and retail outlets, allowing ShopperTrak to revise its 2010 holiday forecast. According to the company’s Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE), sales during the upcoming holiday shopping season (Nov. / Dec.) are now expected to increase 3.2 percent versus last year (up from the 2.9 percent originally anticipated), while the company’s Retail Traffic Index (SRTI) is forecasting a 1.0 percent traffic increase for the same period (a substantial rise from the previously expected 0.1 percent decline).

Interesting. They report far a far less dramatic increase in Black Friday sales, but project a much more dramatic improvement in overall sales for the holiday season.

So, did we see a 6.4% increase in Black Friday sales, or a 0.3% increase? Will we see a 2.3% increase in sales for the season, or a 3.2% increase? Who's right? Who should we believe?

The answer to the last question is simple. Do what economists and policy makers will do.

Pick the one that suits your agenda best.

What's Happening Today? And Why Am I Tired?

Lots, as long as you're not looking for economic measures.

We've got a short trading day today - the equity markets close at 1 PM, and the bond markets at 2 PM.

It's Black Friday, so the Street will probably be holding its collective breath over the weekend to see how retail sales performed (or didn't, if the U of M's projections from Wednesday are any indicator).

The international markets are down over fears that Ireland will destroy the euro, that Portugal will destroy the euro if Ireland doesn't (Portugal is saying they're just fine, really, thanks for asking; it's almost exactly the language that Ireland was using as late as November 15, so surely we have no reason to be alarmed whatsoever), and that Kim Jong-Il and the North Korean Crazy [1] - who is, in his inimitably barking-mad fashion insisting that it is South Korea and the United States pushing towards war, pay no attention to my random artillery fire thank you very much - will destroy the Asian marketplace and part of Asia in the process.

Oh, and that morning fatigue you're feeling? It's probably due to L-tryptophan, an essential amino acid that cannot be synthesized by humans but is found in moderately large quantities in turkey meat (0.24 grams/100 grams of turkey, equal to chicken and 0.01 gram higher than beef). Most likely, you ate a lot of carbohydrates (stuffing and mashed potatoes and sweet potatoes) along with your turkey. All of those carbohydrates promote insulin secretion, which stimulates the uptake of many amino acids (l-tryptophan is not among them) into your muscles. This leaves you with more of the l-tryptophan in your blood. L-tryptophan converts into serotonin in your brain stem, which then turns into melatonin in your pineal gland. Melatonin promotes sleep, and now you have larger than normal quantities of melatonin in your brain.

Or, maybe, you just hit Black Friday this morning. Same end result, although the turkey made you less likely to have to kidney punch someone's grandmother over a toaster.

[1] With their latest release "Why Ya Gotta Make Me Hit Ya Baby?"

We Few, We Merry Few, We Band Of Cashiers

With enormous apologies to the Bard.

RETAIL EMPLOYEE. O that we now had here
But one ten thousand of those men in the USA
That do no work to-day!

MANAGER. What's he that wishes so?
My own employees? No, my team;
If we are mark'd to work, we are enow
To earn our company profit; and if to live,
The fewer workers, the greater share of honour.
God's will! I pray thee, wish not one cashier more.
By Jove, I am covetous for gold,
I care who doth feed upon my cost;
It yearns me if men my garments do not wear;
Such outward things dwell in my desires.
And if it be a sin to covet honour,
I am the most offending soul alive.
No, faith, cashier, wish not a man from home.
God's peace! I would not lose so great an honour
As one man more methinks would share from me
For the best hope I have. O, do not wish one more!
Rather proclaim it, team member, through my host,
That he which hath no stomach to this day,
Let him depart; his holiday time shall be approved,
And payment for time off put into his purse;
We would not work in that man's company
That fears his fellowship to work with us.
This day is call'd the Black Friday.
He that works this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam'd,
And rouse him at the name of Black Friday.
He that shall work this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on Thanksgiving feast his neighbours,
And say 'To-morrow is Black Friday.'
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars,
And say 'These wounds I had on Black Friday.'
Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words-
Wall-Mart, Target and K-Mart,
Best Buy and Sears, Pottery Barn and Dillards-
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Black Friday shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And cashiers in America now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That worked with us upon Black Friday.