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WASHINGTON – The US Department of the Treasury today issued the following statement from Acting Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability Tim Massad upon the announcement that American International Group Inc. (AIG) has entered into a transaction agreement with the US Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the trustees of the AIG Credit Facility Trust to accelerate the repayment of U.S. taxpayer funds. This development is the next step in a process that will accelerate the government's exit from AIG and ensure that we recover our investment. When this transaction closes, which will occur no later than March 15, 2011, the Federal Reserve loan will be paid off with no expected losses and Treasury's preferred stock investment will be converted to common shares. Treasury can then sell those shares publicly in order to recover taxpayer funds over time.
"Today's announcement is a milestone in the government's long-stated efforts to exit our investments in private companies as soon as practical while protecting taxpayers," said Massad. "When all is said and done, we believe taxpayers will recover every dollar invested in AIG and stand a good chance of making a profit."
For additional background:
Treasury Update on AIG Investment Valuation, November 1, 2010: http://www.financialstability.gov/latest/pr_11012010.html
Treasury Releases Two-Year Retrospective Report on the Troubled Asset Relief Program,
October 5, 2010: http://www.financialstability.gov/latest/pr_10052010.html
Statement by the US Treasury Department on AIG Exit Plan, September 30, 2010: http://www.financialstability.gov/latest/pr_09302010.html
Treasury Names Two Appointees to AIG's Board of Directors, April 1, 2010: http://www.financialstability.gov/latest/tg_04012010.html
U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Board Announce Participation in AIG Restructuring Plan, March 2, 2009: http://www.financialstability.gov/latest/tg44.html
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| Citigroup Investment Summary ($ in billions) | |
| Underwritten Offering of Common Shares (12/6/10) | $10.5 |
| Completed Common Stock Trading Plans as of 12/6/10 | 21.3 |
| TruPS Repayment (10/5/10)1 | 2.2 |
| Targeted Investment Program Repayment (12/9/09) | 20.0 |
| Interest and Dividends | 2.9 |
| Total Proceeds | $57.0 |
| Total Investment | $45.0 |
| Realized Gross Profit2 | $12.0 |
| 1. The entirety of Treasury's proceeds from this sale represents a profit to taxpayers, because Treasury did not incur any losses on the $5bn in Citigroup assets it guaranteed in exchange for these TruPS®. | |
| 2. Excludes warrants from the CPP, TIP, and AGP investments and TruPS with an $800mm principal value held by the FDIC for Treasury's benefit. | |
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"What compromise?" you ask. Well, let me tell you...
At 6:32 PM last night, President Obama announced the details of the compromise between the Democrats and the Republicans on the subject of whether or not the Bush tax cuts will expire. As a reminder, the Democrats wanted to extend the tax cuts for anyone making less than $200,000 (about 96.9% of the populace, according to my calculations from IRS figures[1]) while the Republicans wanted to extend the tax cuts for everyone (about 100% of the populace, according to IRS figures).
How did the compromise work out? In the words of the President, "we have arrived at a framework for a bipartisan agreement. For the next two years, every American family will keep their tax cuts -- not just the Bush tax cuts, but those that have been put in place over the last couple of years that are helping parents and students and other folks manage their bills.... Now, under this agreement, unemployment insurance will also be extended for another 13 months, which will be welcome relief for 2 million Americans who are facing the prospect of having this lifeline yanked away from them right in the middle of the holiday season."
In other words, the compromise boils down to "the Republicans get everything they want, and the Democrats give it to them." An interesting definition of compromise, don't you think?
But surely that's not it? What else is driving futures?
Well, Reuters is reporting that China's central bank is getting ready to tighten the yuan by raising interest rates. Their CPI has hit a 27-month record high of 4.7% and this, combined with fears driven by US market concerns about the Fed possibly buying more than $600 billion in Treasuries, has China concerned about inflation. Rising interest rates are the universally-accepted cure for inflation, so get ready. Asian markets were down initially on the news, but recovered somewhat (mostly because the markets have already priced in more tightening).
And, of course, there's the Treasury announcing an underwritten public offering of it's remaining 2.4 billion shares of Citigroup common stock, at $4.35 per share. Once these are sold, that will eliminate the Treasury's full position of Citigroup common stock, although it will continue to hold warrants for more common stock as well as $800 million in TruPS[2].
[1] The President puts it at 98% in his speech, but what's 1.1% between friends?
[2] TruPS? Investopedia (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trustpreferredsecurity.asp) defines them as "trust preferred securities), securities similar to debentures and preferreds that are generally longer term, have early redemption features, make quarterly fixed interest payments, and mature at face value. They also maintain the appearance of equities in a company's accounting statements, which sounds to me like an accounting trick to make the company look like it has less liabilities than it really does, but it is in accordance with GAAP. So it's legal.
Statement by the President on Tax Cuts and Unemployment Benefits (http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2010/12/06/statement-president-tax-cuts-and-unemployment-benefits)
China rate rise talk builds as loans and inflation rise (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B60XG20101207)
Treasury Announces Public Offering of Citigroup Common Stock (http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/TG994.aspx)
Jim Cramer, in his lucid days, said that "tips are for waiters". Keep that in mind, until the ECB actually says it will do something.
The European rumors and good factory data out of China (specifically, their Purchasing Managers' Index hit a 7-month high of 55.2) seem to be driving the futures up. There are a few bits of domestic news that could hinder the joyous rumor-driven market frenzy, however.
First off, the Fed is going to have to release details about the emergency loans they handed out during the 2007-2009 market collapse. You remember those, right? The massive bailouts of AIG, and Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch, and Lehman Brothers...
Oh, wait. That's right. They didn't bail out Lehman Bros. The people who are really excited about the release of the data are curious to see why they didn't get bailed out. Also, most analysts are expecting the data to be disclosed in a less-than-helpful fashion. Or, as Christopher Whalen (managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics) puts it: "My sense is they're going to give us the disclosure in the same grotty fashion (as before). It's not going to be well organized so you'll have to sort through it."[2]
Imagine that. The Fed might not want people to figure out what they're doing. Shocking. Shocking, I say.
Second, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. has released a report that employers announced 48,711 job cuts in November, up 28% from the 37,986 job cuts in October. In what passes for good news, this is still down 3.3% from the job cuts announced a year ago in November. But hey, they're being offset by plans to add 15,900 seasonal employees in the retail sector and 500 in the transportation sector last month. {3]
[1] Because the US is obviously in a position to explain to other nations how to bring their economic problems under control, and to explain how to implement austerity measures.
[2] Grotty. Adjective. seedy, wretched, dirty
[3] Because temporary seasonal jobs obviously offset the loss of full time permanent jobs. Obviously.
Articles cited:
ECB talk lifts battered euro as crisis worries spread (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6AO0HG20101201)
Futures rally on euro bounce, strong Chinese data (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69O1D320101201)
Time for Fed to show who crisis loaned benefited (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B014S20101201)
48,711 November Job Cuts UP 28% From October (http://www.challengergray.com/press/PressRelease.aspx?PressUid=151)
Short on votes, deficit panel delays decision (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AS4Z120101201)