"Economists are pessimists: they've predicted 8 of the last 3 depressions."
--Barry Asmus

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Thursday, March 17, 2011

The Philadelphia Fed Survey.

This then, is the Philadelphia Fed's survey of business conditions in their district. Even though their district isn't much bigger than the New York Fed's, their report is considered more influential. Maybe, one of these days, I'll find out why.
Anyway, the General Business Conditions Index came in at 35.9 in February, substantially beating expectations. How much? Well, it was the highest level the Philadelphia Fed had recorded since January of 2004. That's how much. Nevertheless (or, possibly, because of this), the Econoday-surveyed analysts are expecting the level to decline to 32.0 for February.
Turning to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's report, those pessimistic analysts were wrong. The General Business Conditions Index increased to a new level of 43.4, the highest reading since January 1984. The New Orders Index increased 17 points, the sixth consecutive monthly increase.

Consumer Price Index News Release

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The latest Consumer Price Index news release (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf) was issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Highlights are below.
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On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.5 percent in February after rising 0.4 percent in January. Theindex for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in February, the same increase as in January.

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CPI

The CPI is the Consumer Price Index, a measure of the rate of change in the average price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. This is one of the major measures of inflation and, as such, is split into two primary components: CPI and CPI less food & energy[1]. these are pretty much what they sound like.
For January, the CPI-U came in at 0.4% (slightly worse than expected). Meanwhile, the "core" CPI-U came in at a mildly disappointing 0.2%. Energy costs rose 2.1%, but energy service costs declined 0.6%. Looking to February, the Econoday-surveyed analysts are expecting CPI-U to rise another 0.4%, with "core" CPI-U rising at only 0.1%.
With all that in mind, we turn to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics for the CPI Summary. In February, the CPI-U increased by 0.5% (missing expectations), and the "core" CPI-U rose 0.2% (also missing expectations). Energy rose 3.4% for the month (with gasoline up 4.7% and fuel oil up 5.8%), and food rose 0.6%.
[1] I believe I made my weekly vitriolic observations about "core" inflation measures yesterday when I discussed the PPI. In order to spare everyone, I'll refrain from repeating myself.

First Time Jobless Claims

First off, let's review the week ending 3/5. We had a seasonally adjusted 397,000 new initial claims (missing expectations by 12,000). In unadjusted numbers, 406,096 people filed initial claims for unemployment insurance (up 52,147 from the previous week). The state program insured unemployment level (which functions on a two week delay) came in at a seasonally-adjusted 3,771,000 (down 20,000), but the unadjusted numbers saw a level of 4,442,438 (up 97,576). Finally, as of 2/19, the total number of people claiming unemployment benefits under any program (not just state programs) was 8,772,818.
Looking to the week ending 3/12, the Econoday-surveyed analysts are looking for seasonally-adjusted first-time claims to fall to 385,000.
We now turn to the US Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. The 3/5 initial claims were adjusted upwards to 401,000 (a 4000 increase to last week's already disappointing results), but the 3/12 advance seasonally-adjusted figure for initial claims came in at 385,000 (right in line with expectations). Also, the unadjusted number of initial claims was 372,370.
The state program insured unemployment level for 2/28 was adjusted upwards to 3,786,000. For 3/5, the seasonally-adjusted level is being reported at 3,706,000. The unadjusted level for state program insured unemployment claims comes in at 4,276,916 (down 165,522).
As of 2/26, the total number of persons claiming benefits in all programs was 8,953,610.

More Than 99 Percent of TARP Disbursements to Banks Now Recovered as Six Financial Institutions Deliver Nearly Half Billion Dollars in Proceeds to Taxpayers

TARP Bank Programs Continue to Near Profitability
WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced that today six financial institutions have repurchased Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Capital Purchase Program (CPP) investments, delivering a total of $475 million in proceeds for taxpayers.
With today's transactions, the programs within TARP that provide direct financial support to banks are continuing to near profitability. Through repayments, dividends, interest and other income, taxpayers have now recovered more than 99 percent (approximately $244 billion) of the approximately $245 billion in total funds disbursed for TARP investments in banks. Treasury currently estimates that bank programs within TARP will ultimately provide a lifetime profit of nearly $20 billion to taxpayers.
Today's CPP transactions are listed below:
  • Fifth Third Bancorp (Cincinnati, OH): Repurchased 43.6 million warrants to purchase common stock of Fifth Third Bancorp. (Total Proceeds Today for Taxpayers: $280.0 million) Note: On February 2, 2011, Fifth Third Bancorp fully repaid its $3.4 billion in outstanding CPP preferred shares.
  • National Penn Bancshares, Inc. (Boyertown, PA): Repurchased all remaining outstanding CPP preferred shares totaling $150.0 million and paid accrued dividends totaling $645,833 (Total Proceeds Today for Taxpayers: $150.6 million)Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. (Oak Ridge, NJ): Repurchased CPP preferred shares totaling $20.0 million and paid accrued dividends totaling $86,111 (Total Proceeds Today for Taxpayers: $20.1 million) Note: After this transaction, Treasury holds remaining outstanding Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. CPP preferred shares totaling $19.0 million.
  • Stockmens Financial Corporation (Rapid City, SD): Repurchased all remaining outstanding CPP preferred shares from Treasury's original investment in the institution totaling $11.6 million and paid accrued dividends totaling $49,807. Stockmens Financial Corporation also repurchased additional preferred shares that Treasury obtained from exercising warrants totaling $778,000 and paid accrued dividends on those additional preferred shares totaling $6,030. (Total Proceeds Today for Taxpayers: $12.4 million)
  • Bridge Capital Holdings (San Jose, CA): Repurchased all remaining outstanding CPP preferred shares totaling $8.9 million and paid accrued dividends totaling $38,164. (Total Proceeds Today for Taxpayers: $8.9 million)
  • Heritage Bankshares, Inc. (Norfolk, VA): Repurchased CPP preferred shares totaling $2.6 million and paid accrued dividends totaling $11,220 (Total Proceeds Today for Taxpayers: $2.6 million) Note: After this transaction, Treasury holds remaining outstanding Heritage Bankshares, Inc. CPP preferred shares totaling $7.5 million.
Treasury currently expects that TARP investment programs taken as a whole – including financial support for banks, AIG, and the domestic auto industry; as well as targeted initiatives to restart the credit markets – will result in little or no cost to taxpayers. The lifetime cost of TARP is likely to be limited to funds disbursed for Treasury's foreclosure prevention programs, which were not expected to be recovered.
In the President's FY2012 Budget, the Administration estimated that the lifetime cost of the overall TARP program will be approximately $48 billion. When also including AIG common stock held for the benefit of Treasury outside of TARP – that projected cost drops to $28 billion. ​


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U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes News Release

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The latest U. S. Import and Export Price Indexes news release (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ximpim.pdf) was issued today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Highlights are below.
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U.S. import prices rose 1.4 percent in February, following a similar 1.3 percent advance in January. The price index for U.S. exports increased 1.2 percent in February, after rising 1.3 percent the previous month. Higher agricultural and nonagricultural export prices each contributed to the overall advance in February.

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Written Testimony of Secretary Timothy F. Geithner Before the House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government

Written Testimony of Secretary Timothy F. Geithner Before the House of Representatives Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government

Chairwoman Emerson, Ranking Member Serrano, members of the Subcommittee, thank you for the opportunity to testify about the President's Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 Budget for the Department of the Treasury.
Congress has given Treasury a very broad mission, with responsibilities that touch many aspects of the lives of Americans.
Treasury is responsible for raising the resources necessary to fund critical Government functions, from national defense to protecting national parks. As the government's financial manager, we process payments on a daily basis of almost $100 billion, including Social Security payments to 54 million Americans each month. We design and deliver tax credits to help support business investment and help families finance a college education. We design and enforce the financial sanctions necessary to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and the finance of terrorism.
Treasury plays an important role in helping shape the President's overall economic policies.
Our lead policy responsibilities include tax policy, the stability of the U.S. financial system (as Chair of the recently established Financial Stability Oversight Council), and overall international economic policy.
Unlike most Federal agencies, Treasury's annually appropriated budget is about people not programs, with most of the resources we seek from Congress directed to supporting the talented public servants charged with these important economic and financial responsibilities. Salaries and operating costs make up 96 percent of our Budget, and most of the rest is for investments in technology they require to function.
Unlike most Federal agencies, we manage no spending programs, with the exception of the Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) programs, which help catalyze private investment in communities across the country.
In the President's Budget for FY 2012, the Administration requested slightly more than $14 billion, $13.3 billion of which is for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). This request includes efficiency savings and program reductions across all Treasury bureaus, as well as a number of targeted investments to allow us to better address some of the most important economic challenges facing the United States.
Let me begin by summarizing the core economic and financial priorities that shape this Budget request.
Strengthening Economic Growth
As we work to strengthen the economy and help get more Americans back to work, we are responsible for a range of initiatives designed to help support business investment.
As part of the Small Business Jobs Act of 2010, Treasury is implementing two new programs - the Small Business Lending Fund and the State Small Business Credit Initiative - designed to improve access to capital for small businesses.
We are working to encourage private sector investment in start-ups and small businesses operating in moderate and low-income communities through investments in the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund and the New Markets Tax Credit Program.
Repair and Reform of the Financial System
Our programs to help strengthen and reform the financial system have made very substantial progress, but we still face a number of challenges ahead.
The financial recovery bank programs under the investment portion of the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) are now estimated to provide a substantial positive return to the taxpayer. We are working to manage down the remaining TARP investments as quickly as possible. We are also seeking to reduce the ultimate cost of the Government's support for the housing market through the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs).
We are helping shape the rules to implement the comprehensive reforms to the financial system passed by Congress last year, including stronger protections for consumers and tougher limits on risk-taking by banks.
We are working with Congress to reform the housing finance system, by winding down the GSEs, encouraging private capital to return to the market, and providing more targeted support for affordable housing.
Tax Reform
The President has proposed to reform our corporate tax system to make America more competitive.
We look forward to working with members of Congress and the business community to design a comprehensive, revenue neutral reform of the corporate tax system that would lower tax rates, eliminate special tax breaks, and encourage investment in the United States.
Promoting U.S. Economic and National Security Interests Globally
Treasury plays a critical role in helping advance U.S. economic interests abroad and protecting against foreign threats to our economic and financial security. Our request sustains the Department's investment in counter-terrorism and financial crime programs. This includes funding for implementing targeted economic sanctions against foreign threats to the United States and stopping the flow of money to terrorist organizations and their support networks.
Improving the Efficiency of Government Services
As we pursue these core priorities, we are working to deliver savings, program reductions, and improvements in the overall efficiency of government. As a result of these savings, our Budget requests for FY 2012 in five accounts are below the FY 2010 enacted levels, and in three accounts are below the FY 2008 enacted levels.
Taxpayer Services and Tax Enforcement
The customer service and enforcement programs at the IRS provide one of the best values in the Federal Government. Every dollar invested in IRS yields nearly five dollars in increased revenue from non-compliant taxpayers. The targeted investments in this Budget request are expected to produce more than $1.3 billion in additional annual revenue once fully implemented in FY 2014.
In FY 2010, the IRS enforcement effort's brought in $57.6 billion in additional tax revenues. This is a 53 percent increase in enforcement revenue since 2003 and a clear example that the investment in the IRS over the past few years is producing significant returns.
Over the last decade there have been nearly 4,500 changes to the tax law, providing IRS with a challenging and constantly changing business environment. Despite this fact, service levels have increased and each year the IRS has delivered a successful filing season.
The IRS continues to implement information programs and online applications to help taxpayers find and understand information. Use of the popular IRS web tool, "Where's My Refund.com" has nearly tripled since 2006 to 67 million users. This modernization has not only helped improve IRS' daily interactions with taxpayers but has also provided the platform for significant productivity increases in IRS operations.
Today we receive nearly 100 million tax returns electronically each year. In the past these returns would have been opened, sorted, and transcribed manually. Last year, nearly 70 percent of individual tax returns were filed electronically compared to a mere 10 percent 15 years ago. The efficiency savings have allowed us to consolidate 10 submission processing sites into six and reduce the need for manual submission processing jobs. We will repurpose an additional processing site later this year.
Our IT modernization effort will decrease the time it takes to process and post taxpayer information from two weeks to one day, allowing IRS to issue faster refunds and customer service representatives to answer taxpayer questions based on more up to date information.
Treasury's Electronic Payments Initiatives
Modernizing processes and reducing waste are key components not only of the IRS portion of Treasury's Budget but also of our overall efforts to make sure the Department operates more efficiently and effectively.
Treasury now makes 82 percent of its payments electronically. We are taking action to further increase electronic payments. Effective May 2011, all newly enrolled federal beneficiaries will receive payments electronically. By March 2013, we plan to move all existing beneficiaries to electronic payment.
Productivity increases have already allowed the Financial Management Service to repurpose the Austin, Texas payment center as a debt collection center. Debt collection efforts last year alone totaled more than $4 billion, a 41 percent increase over FY 2000.
Automation of our debt financing functions has allowed the Bureau of Public Debt to decrease staffing by more than 20 percent over the last five years. Additionally, we transitioned to an entirely electronic process for issuing payroll savings bonds earlier this year.
We are working to further automate debt financing.
In early 2012, we will no longer issue over-the-counter paper savings bonds. Instead, we will focus on supporting electronic means to issue bonds to individuals, reducing the cost of staffing, postage, paper forms, and processing fees.
Overall, these efforts to increase Treasury's paperless transactions with the public are expected to produce more than $500 million in cost savings and efficiencies over the next five years. These savings, which include reductions in personnel and facilities costs, will create a more efficient Department and allow us to increase the quality of the services we provide.
Reducing Fraud and Improper Payments
Treasury will also expand upon and maintain the Administration's VerifyPayment.gov portal to prevent ineligible recipients from receiving payments from the Federal government. Treasury will also continue to improve the management of the delinquent debt portfolio by implementing reforms that will increase collection of delinquent tax and non-tax debt, including child support, by more than $5 billion over the next 10 years.
Overall Improvements in Efficiency
Treasury will cut the number of data centers we currently maintain by one-third by 2015, resulting in significant dollar and energy consumption savings.
These overall savings build on substantial improvements over the last two years.
Treasury's FY 2009, FY 2010 and FY 2011 Budgets collectively included a total of more than $1 billion in savings and offsets. Treasury's FY 2012 Budget alone identifies nearly $1 billion in savings, including $336 million in direct cost savings and efficiencies and $630 million in offsets primarily from assets seized as a result of violations of U.S. sanctions.
These savings allow us to finance some very important investments. Any substantial cut to the IRS budget will hurt revenue collection and service to taxpayers, resulting in unanswered phone calls and letters. Cuts to the remaining Treasury responsibilities would weaken our ability to support reforms that are critical to economic recovery and repair of the financial system. Cuts to the CDFI program would limit our ability to attract private investment to communities hit hardest by the economic crisis.
To carry out Treasury's responsibilities, we need to be able to retain and support the dedicated public servants that make up the career staff of Treasury and its Bureaus.
These are a very talented group of people, working extremely hard in the face of the most challenging economic and financial problems in many decades. They have played a vital role in helping restore economic growth and a measure of financial stability.
I look forward to working with you to ensure we continue to attract and retain a diverse, highly skilled workforce that delivers enhanced results for the American public.


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